2021 - Round 10 : Firmer Favourites
/Again this week, only two games are expected to be decided by less than 2 goals, but the difference is that the remainder are expected to be won by between about 3 and 7 goals. As a result, the average expected margin of 20.2 points per game (according to the TAB bookmaker) is almost 3 points per game higher than last week.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
It’s probably not all that surprising, then, that Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder have a near oligopoly on contrarian head-to-head tips, the only other suppliers - and limited suppliers at that - being the RSMP twins in the Dockers v Swans, and Giants v Eagles games.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in five games this week, including ranges as large as 18 and 16 points in the Crows v Dees, and Giants v Eagles games.
Of the 18 extreme forecasts, MoSSBODS_Marg, ENS_Linear and Bookie_3 have four each, MoSHBODS_Marg has three, and RSMP_Simple has two.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges only in the Giants v Eagles (12% points), and Pies v Power (12% points) games.
MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE each have five of the extreme estimates, while MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have three each.
WAGERS
Investors face six wagers this week, two head-to-head only wagers on two teams, and head-to-head plus line wagers on two more. Combined, the half-dozen bets represent just under 3% of the original Combined Portfolio.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are summarised in the Ready Reckoner below.
GWS control most risk (in terms of the difference between the best and worst outcomes), with a swing of 2.2c possible from a single, regrettable goal that converts, say, a 5-point win into a loss. Collingwood could also turn a 1.1c win into an 0.8c loss, but that would take more effort to achieve - conceding almost 4 unanswered goals.
Overall, the worst case is a loss of 2.9c for the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 3.3c.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
