2021 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins, again this year, are far less optimistic about the likely levels of scoring in Round 1 than are the bookmakers. Overall, the twins are predicting about 10 points per game fewer.

(Note that I’ve inferred an expected margin for Sportsbet in the Friday game from its head-to-head prices since, at the time of writing, no line market was available.)

We have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: GWS v St Kilda (narrowly ahead of Essendon v Hawthorn)

  • MoSHBODS: Essendon v Hawthorn

  • TAB and Sportsbet: North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Melbourne v Fremantle

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions v Sydney

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Fremantle (narrowly below Sydney for MoSHBODS)

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Sydney

It’s interesting to note that only one team, Port Adelaide, is expected by the bookmakers to register a score over 100 points.

WAGERS

With such high levels of MoS-bookmaker disagreement, in contrast with what we saw in the head-to-head and line markets, we’re all over the Totals markets, with 7 unders wagers across the round.

The estimated overlays in those wagered on games range from just under 8 points to just over 21 points.

Time now to hope for rain …