2020 - Team Ratings After Round 16
/There was no change amongst the Top 6 teams on either MoS Team Rating System this week, which left Geelong atop them both, and with the Lions and Power in 2nd and 3rd on MoSSBODS, and the Tigers and Lions in 2nd and 3rd on MoSHBODS.
Overall, 9 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and just 7 by MoSHBODS, and only one tea, Melbourne, by more than a single spot on both Systems. The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9961.
Ratings remain fairly compressed at the top such that, on MoSSBODS, 2nd and 11th are separated by only 5.3 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS, 2nd and 10th are separated by only 15.7 points.
Based on the similarity of Combined Rating, you could form the following rough groups based on the latest results:
Top Tier (span 2.5 Scoring Shots / 12.6 Points): Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Richmond, and Collingwood.
Middle Tier (span 2.9 Scoring Shots / 11.3 Points): Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Carlton, Melbourne, West Coast, and GWS.
Bottom Tier (span 4.7 Scoring Shots / 15.1 Points): Hawthorn, Essendon, Gold Coast, Sydney, Fremantle, Adelaide, and North Melbourne.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Dogs, and MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Cats, Lions, and Dogs. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Cats, and Tigers, and MoSHBODS still agrees.
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.560, which is again down a little compared to last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 8 teams this week, leaving the Top 2 of Geelong and Richmond unchanged, but slipping Port Adelaide into 3rd., Brisbane Lions into 4th, and dropping West Coast to 5th.
The big movers were Fremantle (up 2), and West Coast, GWS, and Essendon (all down 2). No other team fell by more than a single spot.
Just nine teams remain rated as better-than-average by MARS.
Forming rough team groups, as we did for the MoS twins, we might get:
Top Tier (span 27.0 Rating Points): Geelong, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, and Collingwood.
Middle Tier (span 6.4 Rating Points): Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, GWS, and Melbourne
Bottom Tier (span 13.7 Rating Points): Carlton, Sydney, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Essendon, Gold Coast, and North Melbourne
Outliers: Adelaide
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest difference for West Coast (who still don’t impress the MoS twins).
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 15 of the teams, with West Coast, Carlton, Fremantle, and Sydney now the most notable examples.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for three teams, and MoSHBODS for just two.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 13 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Geelong, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
