2020 - Team Ratings After Round 15
/Geelong still heads both MoS Team Rating Systems, but MoSSBODS has the next three as Lions, Power, then Tigers, while MoSHBODS has it as Tigers, Lions, and then Power.
Overall, only 6 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and just 8 by MoSHBODS, as 3 pairs of neighbours swapped places on the former, and 4 pairs of neighbours did likewise on the latter. The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9966.
Ratings remain fairly compressed at the top such that, on MoSSBODS, 2nd and 11th are separated by only 4.1 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS, 2nd and 11th are separated by only 14.5 points.
Based on the similarity of Combined Rating, you could form the following rough groups based on the latest results:
Top Tier (span 2.7 Scoring Shots / 12.0 Points): Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Richmond, and Collingwood.
Middle Tier (span 1.7 Scoring Shots / 5.8 Points): Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, St Kilda, Carlton, GWS, and West Coast.
Bottom Tier (span 5.5 Scoring Shots / 17.2 Points): Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Essendon, Sydney, Fremantle, North Melbourne, and Adelaide.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Dogs, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Lions, and Dogs. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Cats, and Tigers, and MoSHBODS still agrees.
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 1), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.577, which is down a little compared to last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only 6 teams this week, leaving the Top 2 of Geelong and Richmond unchanged, but slipping West Coast into 3rd..
The big movers were Sydney (up 3), and Hawthorn (down 3). No other team fell by more than a single spot.
Just nine teams remain rated as better-than-average by MARS.
Forming rough team groups, as we did for the MoS twins, we might get:
Top Tier (span 22.6 Rating Points): Geelong, Richmond, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood.
Middle Tier (span 6.5 Rating Points): GWS, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, and Melbourne
Bottom Tier (span 10.5 Rating Points): Carlton, Sydney, Essendon, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and North Melbourne
Outliers: Adelaide
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (using competition points per game as the primary basis for that ordering), we find the highest differences for West Coast (who don’t impress the MoS twins) and Western Bulldogs (who do impress the MoS twins).
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 13 of the teams, with West Coast, and GWS now the most notable examples.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for five teams, and MoSHBODS for just two.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast (8 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 12 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Adelaide, Geelong, and North Melbourne for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
