2020 - Team Ratings After Round 14
/Geelong still heads both MoS Team Rating Systems, but Brisbane Lions, by not playing, have been elevated to 2nd on MoSSBODS while Port Adelaide slips to 3rd. MoSHBODS has kept Richmond in 2nd, and Port Adelaide in 3rd.
Overall, 12 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 10 by MoSHBODS, leaving just two teams ranked differently by the two Systems, and none by more than two spots. The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9971.
Ratings remain fairly compressed at the top such that, on MoSSBODS, 2nd and 11th are separated by only 4.6 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS, 2nd and 10th are separated by only 13.5 points.
Based on the similarity of Combined Rating, you could form the following rough groups based on the latest results:
Top Tier (span 5.2 Scoring Shots / 18.4 Points): Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, and St Kilda.
Middle Tier (span 4.6 Scoring Shots / 16.4 Points): West Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Essendon, and Sydney.
Bottom Tier (span 3.2 Scoring Shots / 14.7 Points): Fremantle, North Melbourne, and Adelaide.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Dogs, and MoSHBODS with exactly the same Top 3. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Cats, and Tigers, and MoSHBODS now agrees.
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 2), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 8 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 2). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.638, which is up a little compared to last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 12 teams this week, leaving the Top 2 of Geelong and Richmond unchanged, but slipping Port Adelaide into 3rd..
The big movers were GWS (up 3), and Port Adelaide and Essendon (up 2 each). No team fell by more than a single spot.
Ten teams remain rated as better-than-average by MARS, with the gap between the 2nd- and 10th-ranked teams only 22.8 Rating Points (probably the equivalent of about 17 points in a typical season with full-length quarters).
Forming rough team groups, as we did for the MoS twins, we might get:
Top Tier (span 22.0 Rating Points): Geelong, Richmond, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood
Middle Tier (span 3.4 Rating Points): GWS, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, and Melbourne
Bottom Tier (span 12.5 Rating Points): Hawthorn, Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle, Sydney, Gold Coast, and North Melbourne
Outliers: Adelaide
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (using competition points per game as the primary basis for that ordering), we find the highest differences for West Coast (who don’t impress the MoS twins) and Carlton (who do impress the MoS twins).
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 11 of the teams, with West Coast, Melbourne, GWS, and Carlton now the most notable examples.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for only two teams, and MoSHBODS for none at all.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast (6 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 12 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and St Kilda, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
