2020 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/New leaders on both Systems this week, as Port Adelaide rockets up 4 spots on MossBODS to retake top spot their, and Geelong climbs two spots on MoSHBODS to claim top spot under that System.
MoSSBODS has Geelong in 2nd, and Brisbane Lions in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Port Adelaide and Richmond in those places.
Seven teams are now ranked differently by the two Systems, but only two - Carlton and West Coast - by more than a single spot. There also remains a high degree of correlation about the underlying ratings themselves. That correlation now stands at +0.9966.
Ratings remain compressed at the top such that, on MoSSBODS, 1st and 12th are now separated by only 6.2 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 18.3 points.
Based on the similarity of Combined Rating, you could form the following rough groups based on the latest results:
Top Tier (span 2 Scoring Shots / 6.7 Points): Port Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Richmond, and Collingwood (no change, but with Melbourne lurking)
Middle Tier (span 2.6 Scoring Shots / 7.6 Points): Melbourne, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, West Coast, St Kilda, and GWS (no change)
Bottom Tier (span 2.9 Scoring Shots / 9.7 Points): Essendon, Gold Coast, Fremantle, North Melbourne, and Sydney (no change)
Outliers: Adelaide.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Lions, Power, and Tigers, after swapping 2nd and 3rd yet again, and MoSHBODS now with the same Top 3. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Pies, Cats, and Power, again matched by MoSHBODS.
On MoSSBODS, 4 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 9 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.50, down from +0.60 last week,
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 13 this week, but only North Melbourne (down 3), Melbourne (up 3), and Fremantle (up 2) by more than a single spot.
It now has a Top 3 now of Geelong, Richmond, and Port Adelaide, with just over 6 Rating Points separating them.
Only seven teams are now rated as better-than-average by MARS, with the gap between the 1st- and 7th-ranked teams only 19.3 Rating Points (probably the equivalent of about 15 points in a typical season with full-length quarters).
Forming rough team groups, as we did for the MoS twins, we might get:
Top Tier (span 19.3 Rating Points): Geelong, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, Collingwood, and GWS
Middle Tier (span 13.3 Rating Points): Melbourne, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton, Fremantle, North Melbourne, and Sydney
Bottom Tier (span 14.6 Rating Points): Gold Coast, and Adelaide
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (using competition points per game as the primary basis for that ordering), we find St Kilda as the team highest on the ladder ranked lowest by the Systems, and Hawthorn as the team lowest on the ladder ranked highest by the Systems.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 14 of the teams, with West Coast, GWS, Western Bulldogs, and Carlton still the most notable examples.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for seven teams, and MoSHBODS for no team at all.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton (6 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 13 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Adelaide for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
