2020 - Team Ratings After Round 10
/There’s major upheaval again at the top of the MoS Team Ratings, with Richmond now holding 1st on both Systems, ahead of Collingwood and Port Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and ahead of Port Adelaide and Geelong on MoSHBODS.
This week, these differences are driven at least in part by some of the poor conversion we saw in the round. For example, MoSSBODS sees the Pies’ 9 Scoring Shot (6.14 to 6.5) win over the Swans very differently to how MoSHBODS sees it when it includes the fact that the points margin was also only 9.
Nine teams are now ranked differently by the two Systems, but only four by more than a single spot. There also remains a high degree of correlation about the underlying ratings themselves. That correlation now stands at +0.9973.
Ratings remain compressed at the top such that, on MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are now separated by only 5 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 17.6 points.
Based on the similarity of Combined Rating, you could form the following rough groups based on the latest results:
Top Tier (span 1.1 Scoring Shots / 3.2 Points): Richmond, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Geelong, and Port Adelaide (no change)
Middle Tier (span 1.8 Scoring Shots / 4.8 Points): Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Carlton, West Coast, Melbourne, and GWS
Bottom Tier (span 2.6 Scoring Shots / 9.4 Points): Essendon, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Fremantle, and Sydney
Outliers: Adelaide.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Lions, Tigers and Power, after swapping 2nd and 3rd, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Tigers, and Cats. On defence, MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Pies, Cats, and Tigers, and MoSHBODS has a Top 3 of Pies, Tigers, and Power.
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 8 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.60.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, but only Brisbane Lions (down 3) and Melbourne (up 3) by more than a single spot.
It now has a Top 3 of Richmond, Geelong, and Port Adelaide, with less than 6 Rating Points separating them.
Only eight teams remain rated as better-than-average by MARS, with the gap between the 1st- and 8th-ranked teams only 19.5 Rating Points (probably the equivalent of about 15 points in a typical season with full-length quarters).
Forming rough team groups, as we did for the MoS twins, we might get:
Top Tier (span 12.5 Rating Points): Richmond, Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood
Middle Tier (span 14.4 Rating Points): GWS, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and North Melbourne
Bottom Tier (span 24.9 Rating Points): Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne, Sydney, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Adelaide
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder (using competition points per game as the primary basis for that ordering), we find Essendon and now St Kilda as the teams highest on the ladder ranked lowest by the Systems, and Richmond and Hawthorn as the teams lowest on the ladder ranked highest by the Systems.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems (though this week by not so wide a margin), it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 10 of the teams, with West Coast, GWS, Western Bulldogs, and Carlton the most notable examples.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for eight teams, and MoSHBODS for only two teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast (6 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 12 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including five teams for which all three Systems have the same ranking (Adelaide. Essendon, Fremantle, Melbourne, and Richmond).
