2020 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders

The bookmakers appear to have come around to the MoS way of thinking, at least as far as totals are concerned, and have produced per game averages remarkably similar to our own.

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The Lions v Power game is the only one where there is any significant disagreement, with the MoS twins expecting about a goal and a half more than the bookmakers. That said, this game is still expected to be the highest-scoring according to all four forecasters.

Overall, we have:

• HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Lions v Power

• LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Piesv Dons

• HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Cats

  LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSH2020 and MoSS2020: Suns

  • TAB and Easybet: Dons

WAGERS

General alignment with the bookmakers makes for a paucity of wagering opportunities, so this week sees only two bets, and those with overlays of only 7.1 and 9 points.

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In Round 3, MoSSBODS took two of the four Mean Absolute Error (MAE) honours (Home Team and Away Team Scores), allowing the TAB to produce low MAE for Game Margins, and Easybet to do the same for Game Totals.

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Regardless, MoSSBODS still leads all-comers on all four MAE metrics for the season.

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In games on which we had wagers in Round 4, MoSSBODS went 1 and 0 against the TAB, and 1 and 3 against Easybet, leaving it with a 71% success rate against the TAB, and a 58% rate against Easybet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS are now both 22 from 35 (63%) against Easybet, while MoSSBODS is also 22 from 35 (63%) but MoSHBODS 23 from 35 (66%) against the TAB.