2020 - Round 4 Results - Marginally Predictable
/Notwithstanding the 25% reduction in game length, which should logically lessen the likelihood of huge forecasting errors, sub-16 mean absolute errors (MAEs) are something to behold.
Tipping winners was a little more difficult, however, and even the best of the Head-to-Head Tipsters managed only a 6 from 9 finish. One of the Tipsters recording that score was Home Sweet Home, which now finds itself in a very unfamiliar tie for second with ENS_Linear and MoSSBODS_Marg, all on 21.5 from 36 (61%) and just 1 tip behind MoSHPlay_Marg.
The best MAE for the round belonged to ENS_Linear, whose 14 points per game performance was good enough to elevate it to 3rd on the Leaderboard, climbing over Bookie_9 and MoSHPlay_Marg to get there.
Amazingly, MoSHPlay_Marg’s 17.9 MAE was the worst of all the Margin Predictors. Bookie_Hcap’s 16.1 MAE wasn’t all that much better, and left it second-last on the table. So poor, in fact, has been its performance that a number of Margin Predictors have selected the correct team on Line Betting well over 50% of the time, including a rip-roaring 66% from RSMP_Weighted.
All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors returned positive log probability scores for the round, best amongst them MoSSBODS_Prob who therefore retained 1st place on the Leaderboard. MoSHBODS_Prob was next best for the week, and retained 2nd, while MoSHPlay_Prob did enough to hold down 3rd.
WAGERS
Profit again this week, though no thanks to the Overs/Unders Fund, which could manage only 2 from 5 this week after last week’s perfect half-dozen.
More than making up for it though were the Head-to-Head and Line Funds who combined to ensure that the net result for the Combined Portfolio was a 2.4c gain.
That Combined Portfolio is now priced at $1.108, this result coming now from a 42.6% ROT on a 0.25 turn of the Portfolio Funds.
