2020 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders

Last week was another good one for MoS score forecasts, with the twins’ generally more pessimistic views about the level of scoring tending to prevail overall. This week the twins are, again, on average forecasting lower totals than the bookmakers.

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The most notable differences are in the Giants v Pies, Saints v Tigers, Dees v Cats, and Hawks v Roos games where, in some cases, the twins’ forecasted totals are more than a goal lower than the bookmakers’.

We have:

• HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSS2020, MoSH2020 and Easybet: Lions v Crows

  • TAB: Dees v Cats

• LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Giants v Pies

• HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Lions

  LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Crows

WAGERS

This week we have four unders wagers, with overlays ranging from 7 to 9.9 points.

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In Round 3, the MoS twins again shared Mean Absolute Error (MAE) honours, with MoSSBODS recording the low MAE for Game Margins, Away Team Scores and Total Scores, and MoSHBODS recording the low MAE for Home Team Scores.

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MoSSBODS still leads all-comers on all four MAE metrics for the season. Mean regression can’t be far away.

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In games on which we had wagers, MoSSBODS went 4 and 0 against the TAB, and 2 and 0 against Easybet, leaving it with a very profitable record against both bookmakers and an overall 71% success rate.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS are now both 17 from 26 (65%) against Easybet, MoSSBODS is 18 from 26 (69%) against the TAB, and MoSHBODS is 19 from 26 against the TAB (73%).