2020 - Round 14 : MoS Goes Contrarian

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There are only eight games this week, but seven of them have expected margins below 10 points, which has left plenty of room for even the more usually sensible forecasters to lob in a contrarian tip (or four).

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The MoS twins have taken that opportunity and recorded four contrarian tips each, only one fewer than Home Sweet Home. Consult The Ladder has also thrown in a lone contrarian tip for the Tigers v Eagles game, and ENS_Linear has joined Home Sweet Home and the MoS twins by doing likewise for the Blues v Pies game.

We might then see the MoS twins break clear of Bookie Knows Best, or fall a few tips behind.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, four games this week see teams on either side of zero, and four games also see a range of forecast margins spanning 10 or more points. With the Leaderboard quite compressed, that should make for a bit of shuffling of positions over the course of the round.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors we find six games where the range of probability estimates exceeds 10% points. Expect movement on that Leaderboard then, too.

WAGERS

Variability breeds opportunity and this has manifested this week in a bucket-load of wagers including five head-to-head wagers ranging in size from 1.4% to 2,4%, and five line wagers ranging in size from 0.2% to 3.3%

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by Hawthorn, who can add or subtract 2.4c from the value of the Combined Portfolio depending on how well or how poorly they perform.

Richmond carry 2.2c worth or risk, Fremantle 1.6c, Melbourne 1.4c, Carlton 1.1c, and Port Adelaide 0.9c.

Altogether, about 6% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk and the maximum upside is about 6%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.