2020 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders

This week’s theme seems to be one of general agreement between MoS models and the bookmakers, and we see that playing out also when we turn to forecasts of team scoring.

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Overall, the MoS twins are slightly less pessimistic about scoring, although the differences in any single game are mostly less than a goal.

We have

• HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Lions v Saints

  • TAB: Dogs v Dees, and Lions v Saints

  • Easybet: Dogs v Dees

• LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Dockers v Swans

  HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Cats

  LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Crows

WAGERS

Three wagers this week, all of them unders, and none of them with an overlay greater than 8.2 points.

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Round 12 was a good one for the TAB Bookmaker. He recorded the best Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals, leaving MoSSBODS to record best MAE only for Home Team Scores.

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That saw MoSSBODS surrender its season-long lead in two of the categories (Game Margins, now led by the TAB, and Away Team Scores, now led by Easybet), to lead now only on Home Team Scores. MoSHBODS retained the season-long lead on Game Totals, but only just.

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With no Totals wagers last round, MoSSBODS still has a season-long 64% success rate against the TAB and a 55% success rate against Easybet in games on which it has wagered.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS are now 56 from 104 (54%) against the TAB, and 58 from 104 (56%) against Easybet.