2020 - Round 11 : And Again

/

If this end a round on one day and start the next on the following day becomes a thing in the future, I’m going to need to seriously reconsider running this blog …

So far, markets have only been framed for 7 of the 8 eight games, so those are the only 7 we’ll consider here. I’ll update in a separate blog, once the final markets are framed.

(NB: An earlier version of this blog had the 4th game of the round as North Melbourne v Melbourne and a number of models had produced their forecasts assuming that North were at home at Bellerive.)

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarian tips this week are almost solely on offer from Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder, with MoSSBODS_Marg providing the lone contribution from any other tipster.

So, not much movement again at the top of the Leaderboard this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are forecasts on either side of zero only in the Power v Tigers and Dockers v Hawks games, and ranges of 12 points or less in five of the seven games. The largest range is for the Power v Tigers and Crows v Pies games.

Lastly, turning to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in that Power v Tigers game where it’s 25% points.

WAGERS

This week’s wagering comprises bets made on Saturday morning at around 1:00am, and include a lone head-to-head wager on Port Adelaide, and three small- to moderately-sized line bets.

(NB: The wager on Melbourne is now not one that MoSSBODS would recommend but, in keeping with MoS tradition, a bet made is a bet made, so the wager stands.)

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Port Adelaide are carrying the round’s greatest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), with the difference between successful and unsuccessful wagers on them representing 1.3% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Melbourne carrying a 1.1% swing, Carlton a 0.6% swing, and Collingwood a 0.2% swing.

In total, for now, 1.7% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 1.5%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.