2020 - Round 1 : Who Knows?

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Were I a betting man, I’d say there’s a better than even chance that this blog post will be totally moot in 24 hours time, but for now Round 1 is still going ahead as scheduled, so we’ll do what we always do here in preparation.

The average expected margin for Round 1, according to the bookmakers, is just 11.3 points per game, making it the most competitive first round of a season since at least 2012, and one of the most competitive of any round across that period.

Five games are expected to be won by a single-digit margin, two more by less than three goals, and the remaining two by less than four goals.

It’s a shame that these games, if they do go ahead, will not be seen by the crowds they would seem to justify.

To the MoS Tipsters then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, there’s considerable support for the narrow underdog Roos, quite a bit for the underdog Hawks, and a little for the underdog Dogs and Cats. Those games aside, there’s unanimous support for the favourites.

Home Sweet Home have picked four underdogs, MoSHBODS_Marg, three, and CTL, ENS_Linear, and MoSSBODS_Marg two each.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, the range of forecasts for every game is quiet narrow, and nowhere larger than the 16 points for the Hawks v Lions game.

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors is a tiny 10.1 points per game, even smaller than the bookmaker’s average.

Bookie_3 is the most extreme forecaster in five games this week, MoSSBODS_Marg in four, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three. With C_Marg’s retirement this year, there’ll be a lot more opportunity for others to grab the extreme predictions.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Hawks v Lions game where it’s 20% points, followed by the Crows v Swans (12%), and the Dons v Dockers (11%).

Bookie_LPSO and MoSHBODS_Prob have the round's most extreme estimates in five contests, MoSSBODS_Prob in four, and Bookie_RE in three.

WAGERS

Investors face a fairly quiet first week, with seven wagers across five of the nine games putting just under 6% of the original Combined Funds in play. There are four head-to-head wagers, all priced in the $1.70 to $2.05 range and each representing about 2 to 3% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers, two of them on underdogs, and ranging in size from 0.4% to 3% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

With the Line Fund carrying a 60% weighting this year, most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by the team with the largest line bet, which is Hawthorn. The difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them represents 4.6% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Adelaide and Fremantle carrying 1.9% risk, the Roos 1.1%, and the Western Bulldogs 1%.

In total, just under 6% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is just over 5%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.