2019 - Team Ratings After Round 26
/GWS rose to 3rd on MoSSBODS and to 5th on MoSHBODS this week after it made small rating gains on both Systems at the expense of Collingwood. The only other moves were Geelong and Collingwood each falling one spot on MoSSBODS, and Hawthorn falling one spot on MoSHBODS.
According to MoSSBODS, then, the Grand Final pits 1st versus 3rd while, according to MoSHBODS, it pits 1st versus 5th. MoSSBODS rates the Tigers as 1.7 Scoring Shots, or about a goal, stronger than GWS at a neutral venue, while MoSHBODS has the Tigers as 7.5 points stronger.
The two Systems still differ then in their rankings of only four teams by more than two spots:
Brisbane Lions: 2nd on MoSSBODS and 8th on MoSHBODS
Port Adelaide: 7th on MoSSBODS and 10th on MoSHBODS
Western Bulldogs: 8th on MoSSBODS and 4th on MoSHBODS
Sydney: 14th on MoSSBODS and 11th on MoSHBODS
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 17th are separated by only 8.4 Scoring Shots (and 2nd and 7th by only 1.6 Scoring Shots), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by only 9.6 points.
The underlying Combined MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings remain extremely highly correlated (+0.9747).
On the Component Ratings, we have now as Top 3s:
Offence
MoSSBODS: Lions, Dogs, Tigers
MoSHBODS: Dogs, Lions, Tigers
Defence
MoSSBODS: Pies, Tigers, Giants
MoSHBODS: Tigers, Pies, Hawks
The correlation between the underlying offensive ratings of the two Systems is +0.9760, and between the underlying defensive ratings +0.9733.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 8 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 2 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
Only two teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:
Western Bulldogs (positive offence and negative defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)
Sydney (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)
The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current MoSSBODS rating.
ChiPS moved GWS into 5th at the expense of Hawthorn, while MARS dropped Collingwood below West Coast and into 4th this week. No other teams moved places.
That’s left the two of them disagreeing still about the rankings of only Sydney and Fremantle by more than two places, and the correlation between their underlying ratings at +0.9739.
This season, a Margin Predictor formed by by taking 50% of the difference in the teams’ MARS Rating and adding a flat 7 points for HGA would have yielded a highly competitive 26.39 mean absolute error (MAE) across the season. Given the current difference in MARS Ratings, that formula would suggest that Richmond are about a 7 point better side than GWS at a neutral venue.
Looking across the rankings of all four Systems, and ordering the teams based on their average ranking, we find that:
Richmond still has the lowest average ranking. It’s 1st on MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS, and ChiPS, and 2nd on MARS
Five teams have rankings across the four Systems that span six places (West Coast, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and St Kilda)
Essendon has rankings across the four Systems that span five places
No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the four Systems.
Gold Coast and Hawthorn are the only teams ranked identically by all four Systems, but seven other teams’ rankings span a range of only 1 or 2 places.
