2019 - Team Ratings After Round 18
/Brisbane Lions retained top spot on MoSSBODS this week, ahead of GWS and Richmond, and moved up one place on MoSHBODS into 3rd, behind GWS and Richmond
In other moves on MoSSBODS, Hawthorn climbed 4 places into 6th, St Kilda climbed 3 places into 14th, North Melbourne dropped 3 places into 8th, and the Western Bulldogs plummeted 6 places into 12th. No other team moved by more than 2 places.
On MoSHBODS, no team at all moved by more than 2 places.
In total, MoSSBODS changed the ranking of 10 teams this week, and MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11, which left the Systems now differing in their rankings of only four teams by more than three spots:
Hawthorn, ranked 6th by MoSSBODS, and 10th by MoSHBODS
Port Adelaide, 7th and 11th
West Coast, ranked 11th and 5th
Essendon, ranked 13th and 7th
Ratings remain compressed on both Systems. On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 4 Scoring Shots, and on MoSHBODS, 2nd and 13th are separated by only 15.2 points.
The underlying MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings remain highly correlated.
Both Systems now rate 10 teams as above-average, though MoSSBODS includes Port Adelaide and Melbourne on that list, and MoSHBODS does not, while MoSHBODS includes West Coast and Essendon, and MoSSBODS does not.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we see Brisbane Lions still in top spot on both Systems, and now ahead of Richmond and GWS on MoSSBODS, and GWS and Richmond on MoSHBODS.
On defence, GWS remains 1st on both Systems, while MoSSBODS now has Richmond in 2nd, and Port Adelaide in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Geelong in 2nd, and Richmond in 3rd.
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 5 are rated negatively on both (up 1), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).
Only three teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:
Adelaide (positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS, positive offence and negative defence on MoSSBODS)
West Coast (positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS, negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS)
Melbourne (negative offence and defence on MoSHBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS)
Looking across all 18 teams we find that:
on offence, only Essendon is ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems
on defence, only Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, West Coast, and Essendon are ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems
Next, let’s compare each team’s current ratings with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after 18 rounds of the home-and-away season). Note that we lose any team from a season with a home-and-away portion that didn’t span at least 18 rounds.
Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.
It remains the case that no team has a Combined Rating above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season, and only Brisbane Lions, GWS, and Richmond are above the lowest decile. At the other end, Carlton, Sydney, Fremantle, St Kilda, and Gold Coast all still have Combined Ratings lower than that of any previous Grand Finalist at this point in the season.
If we focus purely on the seasons from 2000 onwards, we obtain, as we have for a few weeks now, a similar picture for the teams above the median (ie none of them), but a lot more teams with Combined Ratings below the lowest level for any previous Grand Finalist during that period.
The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating, and shows the relatively small moves that teams generally made this week (St Kilda and Western Bulldogs the exceptions).
ChiPS left Richmond and Geelong unchanged in 1st and 2nd this week, and elevated GWS into 3rd, while MARS kept Geelong in 1st, moved GWS into 2nd, and dropped West Coast into 3rd.
Richmond’s rating lead over Geelong on ChiPS stretched out to 5 Rating Points, while Geelong’s lead over GWS on MARS now stands at 9.2 Rating Points.
ChiPS re-ranked nine teams, and MARS 12 teams this week. The big mover on ChiPS was Adelaide (down 3 spots into 10th). No other team moved by more than 2 spots on ChiPS. On MARS, no team moved by more than 2 spots.
That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the ranking of only Richmond, Sydney, and Adelaide by more than two places.
We can see the continuing high level of correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings by charting them.
Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:
West Coast still has the widest range of rankings (from 3rd on MARS to 11th on MoSSBODS)
Sydney are next (8th on ChiPS to 15th on MoSSBODS)
Then come Essendon (7th on MoSHBODS and ChiPS to 13th on MoSSBODS)
Next, Brisbane Lions (from 1st on MoSSBODS to 6th on ChiPS and MARS)
No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.
Gold Coast is the only team now ranked identically by all four Systems, but six other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.
GWS is now ranked by all Systems at least three places higher than their ladder position, and Melbourne at least four (and, in the case of MoSSBODS, seven) places higher. Fremantle is ranked at least four places lower than their ladder position by all Systems.
