2019 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders Update

/

We are, at last, close to convergence, as the bookmakers have finally conceded that lower scores are likely to be here for at least a while yet. This week, the MoS twins’ average expected total is only about half a goal lower than the bookmakers’.

There are, still, some games where the difference between the MoSi and the bookmakers is non-trivial however, including the first two games of the round, but also the eighth game where MoSSBODS finds itself over two goals higher than the bookmakers.

All four forecasters have the Roos v Dons game as the round’s most-likely high-scoring game. though MoSSBODS thinks the Tigers v Swans game is equally likely. All four also have the Eagles v Power game as the round’s most-likely low-scoring game, though Easybet feels the Crows v Suns game is equally likely (The TAB has the Eagles v Power game as producing an astonishingly low 147.5 points).

The MoS twins again this week have Fremantle as the round’s most-likely low-scoring team, while the TAB has Port Adelaide as that team, and Easybet has Gold Coast. MoSSBODS has Richmond as the most-likely high-scoring team of the round, MoSHBODS has Adelaide, while thw two bookmakers have GWS. MoSSBODS is the only forecaster expecting at least one team to register a three-figure score.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

After four weeks of the competition, MoSSBODS now leads all-comers on game margin mean absolute error (MAE), while MoSHBODS continues to lead on Home Team Score MAE, Away Team Score MAE, and Total Score MAE.

The MoS twins’ correct calls about the continued low-scoring nature of the season sees them with 3 to 4-point MAE leads now over the bookmakers.

WAGERS

But for the forecast 40% chance of rain in Adelaide on Sunday, MoSSBODS would have had its first overs wager of the season.

Instead, it has three unders wagers for the round.

The overlays in those three games range from about 7 to 11 points, which is a similar if slightly narrower range than we enjoyed last week.

After last week, MoSSBODS has a 7 and 2 record against the TAB, and a 10 and 8 record against Easybet in the games on which it has wagered.

Across all games, MoSSBODS is 24 and 12 (67%) against both the TAB and Easybet, while MoSHBODS is 23 and 13 (64%) against both bookmakers.