2019 - Round 5 : A Little Easier

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Taking the bookmakers’ estimated pre-game head-to-head probabilities as a guide, an average tipster should have predicted about 21 or 22 of the first 36 games, which comes out at a little over 5 per round. This week, making the same calculation, we should be expecting about 5.6 to 5.8 correct tips.

That slightly higher expectation is reflected in a higher-than-average expected victory margin, which this week has come in at 19.4 points per game, up 4 points on last week, and roughly on a par with the average Round 5 from recent previous seasons.

This week’s average expectation has been elevated by expected margins in three games that exceed 4-and-a-half goals, and expected margins in the remaining games that are never in single digits.

It will be interesting then to see how aligned are our MoS forecasters.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The Head-to-Head Tipsters are their usual, very aligned selves, with MoSSBODS_Marg the only Tpster besides Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home opting for an underdog in any of the games.

Looking across the games, the only underdogs winning more than a single vote are the Brisbane Lions and St Kilda.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, C_Margs forecast of a 52-point GWS win has ensured that the Giants v Dockers game has the round’s largest range of forecasts spanning just on 4 goals. In other games, the ranges go from a low of 7 points in the North Melbourne v Essendon game, to 21 points in the Dees v Saints game.

The mean expected margin across the nine games and all Margin Predictors is 19.1 points per game, which is about 4.3 points above last week’s average, and just 0.3 points per game below the TAB bookmaker’s average.

MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme forecasts in five of the games, Bookie_3 in four, and C_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the Melbourne v St Kilda game where the forecasts span around 21% points from 48% to 69%. In seven other games the range is from about 5 to 13% points, and in the Richmond v Sydney game it is 17% points. MoSSBODS_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in five contests, MoSHBODS_Prob in four (all bullish about the home teams’ chances), and C_Prob in three.

WAGERS

Activity levels are higher again this week, with Investors facing five head-to-head and four line wagers.

The head-to-head bets range in size from 1.1% on Hawthorn at $2.75, to 8.7% on Adelaide at $1.23, with another pair of bets in the 4% to 5% range, while the line bets range from 0.1% on Gold Coast +28.5 at $1.90, to 4.1% on St Kilda +17.5 also at $1.88.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Richmond this week carries the greatest risk, with the difference between the worst- and best-possible outcomes spanning 4.6c. In the other games, the Saints, Crows, Dogs and Power all carry between 1.7 and 3.9c worth of risk.

In total, almost 10% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across seven games, and the maximum upside is just under 7%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.