2019 - Round 21 : Crunch Time

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The average bookmaker handicap for Round 21 is 21.9 points per game, the highest it’s been for a single round since Round 11, and the second-highest for any round this season. That’s in keeping with history where the last few rounds have typically had higher-than-average expected margins.

Only two games are expected to have a single-digit final margin, while five are expected to be decided by more than 3 goals, three of those by more than 4 goals. Interestingly, eight of the games have home team favourites, the Melbourne v Collingwood game the only exception.

The 2019 all-season average stands at 17.2 points per game, which is now 3.7 points per game below the 2018 average.

Time to look at what the MoS forecasters make of it.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

As we might expect given the relatively large expected margins in many of the games and with so many home team favourites, there’s very little support for underdogs this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters - even from Home Sweet Home. And, the bulk of what support there is comes only in those two games expected to be decided by less than a goal.

Some of that support does come from the RSMP twins, however, so we might see a new leader atop the Leaderboard nonetheless at the end of the round.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only those same two games have produced forecasts on either side of zero, though there are single-digit margin predictions, both from MoSSBODS_Marg, in two other games.

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors is 21.4 points per game, which is just 0.5 points per game lower than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts are for the Lions v Suns game, where they span 28 points thanks to MoSHBODS_Marg and Bookie_9. There’s also a 26-point range in the Cats v Roos game, a 24-point range in the Tigers v Blues game, and a 21-point range in the Giants v Hawks game.

C_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in six games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg in five.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Cats v Roos game where the forecasts span 25% points. Four other games have ranges from 16% points to 18% points, and the remainder run from 9% points to 13% points.

C_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob have the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, Bookie_LPSO in three.

WAGERS

Investors face an odd set of wagers this week, with seven wagers across the nine games, all of them line bets, which collectively put 6% of the original Combined Funds in play. The bets range in size from 0.3% on Carlton, to 4.5% on North Melbourne.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by North Melbourne. The difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them represents 4.3% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Western Bulldogs carryling 2.2% risk, GWS carrying 1.7% risk, Adelaide carrying 158% risk, and Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Carlton, all carrying between 0.3% and 0.9% risk.

In total, 6% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is 5.3%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.