2019 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders

/

The MoS twins are slightly more pessimistic about the likely average level of scoring this week, their average of 161 points per game about 2 points per game lower than the bookmakers’.

For most-likely low-scoring game we have the Dockers v Cats a unanimous choice, but with MoSSBODS seeing it as a tie between that game and the Dons v Power, and Giants v Swans games. There’s also unanimity for the Lions v Dogs game being the most-likely high-scoring clash for the round.

As low-scoring team we have all four forecasters opting for the Suns yet again, and for high-scoring team we have the bookmakers choosing Collingwood, MoSHBODS choosing Brisbane Lions, and MoSSBODS choosing Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were shared between MoSSBODS (lowest for Game Margins and Away Team Scores) and Easybet (lowest for Home Team Score and Total Score).

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Total Score MAE, the TAB still 1st on Home Team Score and Game Margin MAE, and Easybet still 1st on Away Team Score MAE.

WAGERS

This week MoSSBODS has identified five possible wagers, one of which - the only overs opportunity - we’ll ignore because of the forecast for showers for that game.

We’re left then with four bets, the overlays for which range from about 7 to 14 points.

Last week there were four unsuccessful wagers, one over and one under with the TAB, and one over and one under with Easybet, which altered MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB to 13 and 11, and that against Easybet to 21 and 18, droppng the overall win rate to 54% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round MoSSBODS landed on the right side of the TAB in only 3 of the 9 games, and on the right side of Easybet in only 2 games. MoSHBODS landed on the right side of the TAB and of Easybet in just 2 of the 9 games. That took MoSSBODS to a 54% record for the season against the TAB, and a 55% record against Easybet, and took MoSHBODS to a 53% record for the season against the TAB, and a 54% record against Easybet.