2019 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders
/In something of a return to a milder version of the early parts of the season this week, the MoS twins are forecasting generally lower scores than the bookmakers, but overall only by a few points.
For most-likely low-scoring game we have everyone but Easybet lined up behind the Hawks v Dockers game, with Easybet choosing instead, and narrowly, the Suns v Crows game. For most-likely high-scoring game we have the MoS twins favouring the Power v Lions game, and the bookmakers Dogs v Dees.
As low-scoring team we have unanimity, once again, about the Saints for that role, and for high-scoring team we have the Cats as, also, the unanimous choice, and also as the only team likely to register three figures, at least according to the bookmakers.
PERFORMANCE TO DATE
The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were shared amongst our forecasters, with the TAB equal 1st on Game Margin equal with Easybet, and 1st alone on Home Team scores, and with MoSSBODS 1st on Away Team scores, and MoSHBODS 1st on Game Totals.
That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Total Score MAE, the TAB still 1st on Home Team Score and Game Margin MAE, and Easybet still first on Away Team Score.
WAGERS
This week, MoSSBODS has identified four wagers, all of them unders in the now traditional posture of the Fund.
The overlays in the games on which we’ve wagers range from just 6.5 to 7.7 points, which should make even the most ardent MoS fan take pause.
Last week, there was just one successful wager after which MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB remained at 11 and 8, and that against Easybet improved to 19 and 13, lifting the overall win rate to 59% for the season.
Across the entirety of the round, MoSSBODS landed on the right side of the TAB in 6 of the 9 games, and on the right side of Easybet in 7 of 9. MoSHBODS managed 7 from 9 against both bookmakers. That took MoSSBODS to 58% for the season against the TAB and 59% against Easybet, and MoSHBODS to 59% against the TAB, and 58% against Easybet.
