2019 - Round 14 : Overs/Unders

As I write this, the TAB is still to post a Totals market on the Saints v Lions game (and a bunch of other markets, besides), so for now I’ve assumed they’ll eventually put up a total close to, or the same as, Easybet’s. That’s certainly a reasonable extrapolation from what we’ve seen so far this round, but it is slightly weird that there’s no actual market from them.

Asking around, the politest explanation for this absence is forgetfulness, but were I running a multi-billion dollar enterprise I reckon I’d not accept that, as a boss, as a reasonable excuse. Those of you who’ve followed me for a while I hope might recognise that I’m, if anything, a forgiving soul. but this is, frankly, more than a bit embarrassing.

Anyway, on the assumption that this is correct, we have the MoS twins and the two bookmakers in complete agreement in terms of average totals.

(Update on Thursday: the TAB posted a 167.5 total this morning while the line market was still +5.5, so the table below stands.)

View fullsize

For most-likely low-scoring game we have the MoS twins selecting the Dees v Dockers game, and the bookmakers opting for the Swans v Hawks game. For most-likely high-scoring game we have unanimity about it being the lone Sunday Dogs v Pies game.

For low-scoring team we have Fremantle as the MoS twins’ choice, and Hawthorn as the bookmakers’ selection.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week belonged, firmly, to EastBet, which finished 1st or equal 1st on every measure, the TAB tieing it up only on the Game Margin metric.

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Home Team Score MAE and Total Score MAE, Easybet still 1st on Away Team Score MAE, and the TAB still on 1st place on Game Margin.

View fullsize

WAGERS

This week, MoSSBODS has found only a single wager across the six games, an unders bet on the Dees v Dockers game.

View fullsize

The overlay in that game is just over 10 points, so Investors have reason to be enthusiastic.

View fullsize

There were 4 bets last week, but only one winner, after which MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB moved to at 8 and 7, and that against Easybet moved at 18 and 13, leaving the overall win rate to 57% for the season.

I’d shout “mean reversion” more loudly if that were not such a depressing conclusion.

Across the entirety of the round, the MoS twins landed on the right side of the bookmakers’ totals in only 2 or 3 of the 6 games, leaving MoSSBODS at 58% for the season against the TAB and 59% against Easybet, and MoSHBODS at 58% for the season against the TAB and 57% against Easybet.

(When the TAB bookmaker eventually emerges from his or her slumber, I will update the position for the Saints v Lions game.)