2019 - Round 10 : The Closest Round Yet?

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Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be decided by less than three goals, and a eighth by only about three-and-a-half goals, leaving the Suns v Cats game to do all the heavy lifting of dragging up the all-game average.

That average has come in at just under 14 points per game this week, which is the lowest this year and, in fact, the lowest in a home-and-away round since Round 5 of 2018. It’s also the lowest for any Round 10 in the period we’re analysing.

The all-season average expected margin now stands at 17.1 points per game, which keeps us on track for a record-breaking season.

Speaking of records, I wonder if the MoS forecasters can put on another record-setting margin predicting clinic like they did last week …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This week, it’s the Hawks v Power game that has elicited most support for the underdogs, with four of the nine forecasters who’ve so far shown their hand opting for a Port Adelaide victory.

Home Sweet Home is back in its more usual role as a main dissenter this week, tipping the home team underdogs in three games. Consult The Ladder has behaved similarly, though has found underdogs to love in three different games from Home Sweet Home.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are only two games where we see forecast home margins on either side of zero: Hawthorn v Port Adelaide, and Richmond v Essendon.

There are also only two games where the range of forecasts exceeds 3 goals: Fremantle v Brisbane Lions (22 points) and Adelaide v West Coast (21 points). The mean expected margin across the nine games and all Margin Predictors is 12.8 points per game, which is 0.6 points per game below the TAB bookmaker’s average.

C_Marg has the most extreme forecasts in five of the games this week, and Bookie_9 in four. No other forecaster is most extreme in more than two games.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the Adelaide v West Coast game where the forecasts span 22% points (from 53% to 75%). Next-largest are the 20% point ranges for the Richmond v Essendon, and Fremantle v Brisbane Lions games.

C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in five contests, MoSSBODS_Prob in four, and Bookie_OE, Bookie_LPSO, and MoSHBODS_Prob in three each.

WAGERS

We’ve four head-to-head and three line bets this week, with three of the former but only one of the latter sized over 2% of the respective Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Adelaide has two of those more sizeable bets, leaving it carrying the the week’s largest risk of about 5% (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes). Across the rest of the games, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, St Kilda, and Fremantle are each carrying between 1% and 1.6% as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

In total, just over 5% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across just four games, and the maximum upside is about 4.5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.