2018 - Team Ratings After Round 3

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As far as MoSSBODS is concerned, GWS' 27 scoring shots to 23 "victory" over Sydney on Saturday was good enough for them to retain the #1 ranking. MoSHBODS, which had a sneaky look at the final score as well, feels differently, and has instead moved Adelaide ahead of GWS, making it now three different teams that have held its #1 ranking over the course of the season so far.

In aggregate, MoSSBODS reranked 14 teams this week, including six teams by three places or more. The Dogs rose furthest, climbing four spots into 10th, while Melbourne (6th) and Geelong (8th) climbed three spots each. Collingwood (11th) and Essendon (12th) fell furthest, both slipping four places, while North Melbourne slipped three spots into 15th. Only eight teams are currently assessed as being "above average".

MoSHBODS reranked every team except Richmond (3rd), and awarded three spot increases to Melbourne (6th) and the Western Bulldogs (11th), and a three spot decline to North Melbourne into 15th. It rates nine teams as "above average", and nine as "below average".

That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of GWS, Richmond, and Adelaide compared to MoSHBODS' Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, and left the two Systems differing by no more than two places in the ranking of any team.

Turning next to the component ratings of the two MoS Systems we find that both still have the Top 3 teams offensively as Adelaide, Richmond, and GWS in that order, and now both have the Top 3 teams defensively as GWS, Richmond, and Port Adelaide in that order.

Altogether, MoSSBODS reranked just 6 teams on offence and 9 on defence by more than a single spot this week, while MoSHBODS similarly reranked 7 on offence and 7 on defence.

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, only the Western Bulldogs, ranked 7th on MoSSBODS and 11th on MoSHBODS, is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems
  • on defence, no team is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems

Next, let's look at how the 2018 teams' MoSSBODS Ratings compare with those of previous Grand Finalists and other teams at the same point in the season (ie after Round 3). 

We see that the Brisbane Lions, Carlton and Gold Coast still have Combined Ratings below those of any Grand Finalist in history at the same point in the season, and that St Kilda and North Melbourne have Combined Ratings below those of any team in history that went on to win a Flag.

Also apparent is the Combined Rating gap that Adelaide, Richmond, and GWS have established over the rest of the competition. The gap from Adelaide in 3rd to Port Adelaide in 4th currently stands at 1.7 Scoring Shots. (By way of context, the gap from GWS in 1st to Gold Coast in 18th is about 11.6 Scoring Shots.)

Next, let's take a look at MoS' MARS and ChiPS Team Rating Systems.

Both Systems have unchanged Top 5 teams this week, ChiPS retaining GWS in 1st, and MARS retaining Adelaide. This despite the relatively large transfers of Rating Points - especially on ChiPS - for all five of those teams.

Only Richmond (2nd on ChiPS and 5th on MARS), Adelaide (4th on ChiPS and 1st on MARS), Sydney (5th on ChiPS and 2nd on MARS) and now Western Bulldogs (15th on ChiPS and 12th on MARS) are currently ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • The Western Bulldogs is the only team ranked more than three places differently across the Systems. It's ranked 10th by MoSSBODS and 15th by ChiPS.
  • Gold Coast is ranked most differently by the four Systems relative to its ladder ranking. It's ranked 18th by all of the Systems except MARS, which ranks it 16th, but it sits 6th on the ladder (hence the four red downward-pointing triangles in its row).
  • Conversely, Geelong, which sits 12th on the ladder, is ranked between 6th and 8th by all four Systems (hence the four green upward-pointing triangles in its row).