2018 - Team Ratings After Round 22
/In the same way that accuracy can be a poor estimator of a forecaster's ability, raw wins, draws and losses can be a poor estimator of a team's ability, so it always amuses at this time of year how readily some commentators will conflate where a team sits of the ladder with how well they've played across the season. There really are such things as lucky wins and unfortunate losses, and sometimes the less able team wins and the better able one loses.
This year, there certainly seems to be an alignment between ability and ladder success for the teams at the extremes - Richmond, Carllton and Gold Coast - but, elsewhere, there are examples of teams finishing much higher or much lower on the ladder than their estimated talent would suggest they deserved.
Frankly, if this wasn't the case, there'd be no point in creating Rating Systems.
And, speaking of Rating Systems, let's look at the MoS Systems where we find a little more movement this week compared to last, especially on MoSHBODS.
MoSSBODS re-ranked six teams, swapping Collingwood and GWS in 3rd and 4th, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide in 10th and 11th, and Geelong and West Coast in 5th and 7th. MoSHBODS re-ranked 11 teams, eight of them by a single spot, but more dramatically Geelong (up 3 into 4th), GWS (down 3 into 5th), and Port Adelaide (down 2 into 12th).
That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of 10 teams, and differing in the ranking of no other team by more than a single place.
Richmond are now just under 3 Scoring Shots ahead of Melbourne on MoSSBODS, and just under 9 points ahead of them on MoSHBODS.
Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:
- MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 on offence of Melbourne, Richmond, and then GWS
- MoSHBODS, like MoSSBODS, has Melbourne and Richmond 1st and 2nd on offence, but now has Collingwood, up three places, in 3rd
- MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Collingwood, and then Port Adelaide, an ordering with which MoSHBODS agrees
On offence, Melbourne is now rated 1.4 Scoring Shots better than Richmond by MoSSBODS, and 4.4 points better than Richmond by MoSHBODS.
On defence, Richmond is rated 2.1 Scoring Shots better than Collingwood by MoSSBODS, and 6.9 points better than Collingwood by MoSHBODS.
Across all 18 teams, we now have:
- Collingwood ranked 7th by MoSSBODS on Offence, and 3rd by MoSHBODS
- Adelaide ranked 4th by MoSSBODS on Offence, and 7th by MoSHBODS
- Geelong ranked 8th by MoSSBODS on Defence, and 5th by MoSHBODS
- Hawthorn ranked 4th by MoSSBODS on Defence, and 7th by MoSHBODS
No other team is ranked more than two places differently on either offence or defence by the two Systems.
The latest version of the animated GIF of MoSSBODS ratings appears below, and shows movements up or down by 0.5 Scoring Shots or more on either offence or defence only for:
- Geelong +0.6 on offence and +0.5 on defence
- Collingwood +0.5 on offence
- Western Bulldogs -0.8 on offence
- GWS -0.5 on offence
- Fremantle -0.5 on offence and -0.6 on defence
- Carlton +0.8 on defence
- Sydney +0.5 on defence
- Port Adelaide -0.5 on defence
On Combined Rating, the big movers were:
- Geelong +1.1 / Fremantle -1.1
- Sydney +0.9 / GWS -0.9
- Collingwood +0.7 / Port Adelaide -0.7
Relative to history, Richmond's Combined Rating now sits just outside the top decile of teams at this point in the season that ultimately played in the Grand Final, and Melbourne remains the only other team above the median. (Note that this chart only shows those teams that played in seasons with at least 22 home and away rounds).
Sydney, who are now 5th on the competition ladder, still have a Combined Rating lower than all previous Grand Finalists at the end of Round 22, and lower than Port Adelaide, Geelong, North Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide, and GWS, all of whom sit below them on the competition ladder.
As things stand now:
- seven teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
- one has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
- four have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
- six have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
In total, only eight teams now have a positive offensive rating while 11 have a positive defensive rating.
ChiPS did a lot of re-ranking this week, moving 10 teams, eight of them by two spots or more. The big movers were Geelong, up five places into 2nd, and Sydney, up three places into 5th.
MARS moved nine teams, five by more than a single spot, but none by more than two.
Both Systems still agree that the top two teams are now Richmond and Geelong, but ChiPS still has Collingwood in 3rd, while MARS has Melbourne there.
The two Systems differ now by no more than two places for any team.
Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:
- Geelong, Essendon, and Melbourne significantly lower on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
- West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn sit significantly higher on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
- Sydney (5th to 12th) is ranked seven places differently across the Rating Systems.
- Essendon (6th to 11th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
- No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.
