2018 - Team Ratings After Round 18
/Traditionally, this has been the time of year when team rankings on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have been` fairly stable, and the norm was for a handful of teams to bounce up or down by mostly a single spot, and occasionally a couple.
But this has been far from a traditional season. This week, MoSSBODS re-ranked half the teams, including four by multiple spots, while MoSHBODS re-ranked 10 teams, including five by multiple spots. On MoSSBODS, the big movers were Essendon, up 3 spots, and Geelong, Port Adelaide, and Sydney, all down 2 spots. On MoSHBODS, the trend for multiple spot movers was slightly more upwards than downwards, with Essendon, Hawthorn, and Adelaide all climbing 2 spots, and Port Adelaide (down 2), and Sydney (down 3), the only multiple spot decliners.
After all that, MoSSBODS now has a Top 4 of Richmond, Melbourne, GWS, and then Collingwood, while MoSHBODS has Richmond, GWS, Melbourne, and then Collingwood. Same cast, different roles.
That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of 12 teams, and differing in the ranking of the other six by no more than a single place. At least, in that respect, this season resembles those that have gone before it.
A number of teams towards the top of the ratings remain quite similarly rated, although there are now signs of some separation after the Top 5 or so. On MoSSBODS, the gap between Melbourne in 2nd and West Coast in 5th is only 2.3 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS, the gap between GWS in 2nd and West Coast in 5th is only 3.5 points.
Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:
- MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 on offence of Melbourne, Richmond, and then GWS, and a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Collingwood
- MoSHBODS' still has a Top 3 on offence of Melbourne, Richmond, and then GWS, and a a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide, and then GWS.
Across all 18 teams, no team is now ranked more than two places differently on either component by the two Systems.
In the latest version of the animated GIF of MoSSBODS ratings, which appears below, we again see mostly small movements this week.
On offence, the exceptions, which are the teams moving up or down by more than 0.5 Scoring Shots, were:
- Gold Coast +1.2
- Essendon +0.8
- Hawthorn +0.8
- Collingwood +0.5
- Sydney -0.6
- Geelong -0.5
On defence, the teams moving up or down by more than 0.5 Scoring Shots were:
- Gold Coast +0.6
- Melbourne +0.5
- Sydney -1.2
- Fremantle -0.8
- Carlton -0.8
- North Melbourne -0.5
Relative to history, Richmond's Combined Rating remains in the top decile of teams at this point in the season that ultimately played in the Grand Final. Melbourne, now, is above the median Combined Rating at the end of Round 18 of previous Top 2 finishers, and GWS is quite close to the median.
Carlton, now, is dancing in the shallow waters of some of the lowest-rated teams of all time.
As things stand now:
- seven teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (up one from last week)
- one has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (also up one from last week)
- three have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (down two from last week)
- seven have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (no change from last week)
In total, only eight teams now have a positive offensive rating while 10 have a positive defensive rating.
On ChiPS this week, only six teams changed places, though two of them - Collingwood and Sydney - swapped places that were four ladder positions apart. On MARS, there were more, smaller changes, with 11 teams moving, but only West Coast (up 2 into 2nd), and Sydney (down 3 into 5th) moving by more than a single place.
That left a ratings gap of just under 9 Rating Points between 2nd and 9th on ChiPS, and a ratings gap of just under 14 Rating Points between 2nd and 10th on MARS.
Both Systems still agree that the top team is Richmond, but ChiPS bow has Collingwood in 2nd and West Coast in 3rd, while MARS has West Coast in 2nd, and Melbourne in 3rd.
The two Systems differ now by more than two places in their rankings only of Collingwood, ranked 2nd on ChiPS and 6th on MARS.
Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:
- Melbourne, Geelong and the Brisbane Lions still sit significantly lower on the competition ladder than their ranking on all of the Rating Systems.
- Sydney and Port Adelaide sit significantly higher on the competition ladder than their average ranking on the Rating Systems. (Sydney is particularly anomalous here in that ChiPS and MARS have them 2nd whilst the MoS twins have them 11th).
- Sydney (2nd to 11th) is ranked nine places differently across the Rating Systems.
- GWS (2nd to 8th) is ranked six places differently across the Rating Systems.
- Essendon (7th to 12th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
- No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.
