When the bookmakers go low, the MoS twins go lower ...

So far this season, the average game has produced only just over 171 points, and both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS expect Round 6 to produce about the same. The two bookmakers, however, expect about an extra goal per game, with about four of those nine extra goals (compared to the MoS twins) expected to come from Port Adelaide alone.

So, it transpires, the MoS twins' much higher estimates of a North Melbourne win stem not from them expecting the Roos to score many points more than the bookmakers have forecast, but from them preventing Port Adelaide from scoring.

We have:

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING GAME

• All : Essendon v Melbourne

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING GAME

• MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS : Collingwood v Richmond
• TAB and Centrebet : GWS v Brisbane Lions

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING TEAM

• MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS : GWS
• TAB & Centrebet : Adelaide

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING TEAM

• All : Brisbane Lions

Last week, MoSHBODS wasn't especially accurate in identifying the high- and low-scoring teams and matches but, regardless, below once again are its thoughts. I'm not comparing these probability estimates with any wagering markets, so for all I know they could be identifying wonderful wagering opportunities every week. though that is fairly unlikely, I suspect - with 18 and 9 "runners" in the team and game markets respectively, I imagine the overrounds would be hard to overcome.

Anyway, for whatever they're worth, MoSHBODS' views this week are that GWS, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong represent better than even money chances, collectively, of being the round's high-scoring team, and that Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Carlton and Port Adelaide represent better than even money chances, collectively, of being the round's low-scoring team.

The Dons v Dees game has easily the greatest chances of being the round's high-scoring game at just over 21%, while the Pies v Tigers, and Roos v Power games are estimated as being about equally-likely in the 17 to 19% point range to be the round's low-scoring game.

WAGERS

It's six more wagers from MoSSBODS this week, but I feel a lot happier about that fact now than I would have given the same news a week ago.

One of those six wagers is in the Giants v Lions game where there was an unusually high nine point difference in the total expectations of the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers at the time I placed the wagers. That difference appears to have been attributable to their different interpretations (or knowledge) of the "showers developing" forecast for Sydney for Saturday and has since been substantially reduced. Still, MoSSBODS was happy to take the overs on Centrebet's 158.5 offering.

There's one more overs bet in the Cats v Swans game where the overlay is just large enough to justify a bet, and four unders bets, including two where the estimated overlay is about 3 goals or more. Here's to another weekend like last weekend.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

Last week, MoSSBODS was on the correct side of both the TAB's and Centrebet's totals in seven of the nine games, while MoSHBODS registered six against the TAB, and seven against Centrebet,

That gives MoSSBODS a season-long 51% record against the TAB and a 53% record against Centrebet, and gives MoSHBODS also a 51% record against the TAB but a much more impressive 56% record against Centrebet.

MoSSBODS had quite the week on mean absolute margins (MAEs) in Round 5, recording lowest for game margins, home team scores, and totals. MoSHBODS recorded the lowest MAE for away team scores.

So good were MoSSBODS' MAEs that it now leads on the season-long view for away team scores and game totals. The TAB and Centrebet bookmakers are now tied on MAE for game margin forecast, while the TAB is best for home team scores.