2018 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders Update

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Last week’s four finals produced only 545 points amongst them, or just 68 points per team per game, with the highest-scoring game offering only 22 goals and 27 behinds for a total of 159 points.

This week, score expectations are a little higher than that as our four forecasters foresee average totals in the 163 to 168 range.

There's total agreement this week about which will most-likely be the low-scoring teams and low- and high-scoring games, but some debate about which will be the high-scoring team.

(Note that I'm still using "Centrebet" to refer to what are now BetEasy forecasts.)

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING GAME

  • All: Hawthorn v Melbourne (164.5 to 172)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING GAME

  • All: Collingwood v GWS (157.5 to 165)

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Melbourne (93 to 94)

  • TAB & Centrebet: Collingwood (88.5 to 89)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING TEAM

  • All: Hawthorn (72 to 78)

WAGERS

Investors have a single overs wager this week in a game where the estimated overlay is about 7 points but the current forecast is for showers (and possible hail) with an 80% chance of rain.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

MoSSBODS finished on the right side of TAB totals in only one game last week, and on the right side of Centrebet totals in only two. MoSHBODS managed two against TAB totals, and three against Centrebet.

That left MoSSBODS' with a season-long 49% record against the TAB and against Centrebet, and left MoSHBODS with a 47% record against the TAB and a 49% record against Centrebet.

In games where it wagered, MoSSBODS landed 0 from 1 overs bets with Centrebet and with the TAB, as well as 1 from 1 unders bets with Centrebet. That dropped its overall strike rate on overs bets across the season to 38% and lifted that on unders bets to 56%.

On the mean absolute error (MAE) metric, the TAB registered the lowest MAEs this week on home team scores, away team scores, and game totals, while MoSSBODS registered the lowest MAE on game margins.

That left Centrebet still leading on the season-long view for home team scores (MAE of 17.1) and game margins (26.1), and the TAB still leading on away team scores (17.5) and game totals (22.6).

Between the MoS twins, MoSSBODS leads on game margins (26.5 v 27.1), home team scores (17.3 vs 17.6), and away team scores (18.0 v 18.1), while MoSHBODS leads on game totals (23.4 v 23.5).