2018 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders Update

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If you've been troubled by the low scoring in much of this season, especially since Round 2, you'll not find much joy in this week's projected scoring.

The bookmakers can find only three or four games that they expect will top 170 points in total, and two that they think will be nearer 160.

The MoS twins are even more pessimistic, and expect two of the game to fail to reach even the 160 mark, and have an all-game average about 4 or 5 points lower than the bookmakers' at 164 points.

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS : Essendon v Richmond (176 to 177)
  • TAB : Western Bulldogs v Melbourne (177.5)
  • Centrebet : Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, and North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions (176.5)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS : Hawthorn v Port Adelaide (148 to 154)
  • TAB & Centrebet : Collingwood v Fremantle (160.5 to 161.5)

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS : Richmond (106)
  • MoSHBODS, TAB & Centrebet : West Coast (104 to 112)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING TEAM

  • All : Carlton (52 to 55.5)

MoSHBODS' probability estimates this week have West Coast as narrow favourites for the round's high-score, just ahead of Richmond, and they also have Carlton and St Kilda, once again, as the teams most-likely to be the round's low-scoring team, Carlton having secured that rank last weekend.

The Dons v Tigers game is estimated as being most-likely to be the round's high-scoring game, with an estimated probability a little higher than for the Dogs v Dees game, while the Hawks v Power, and Swans v Blues games are estimated as being those most likely to finish as the round's low-scoring game.

WAGERS

Buoyed by last weekend's triumph, but anchored by the disaster of the weekend before, MoSSBODS has this week found value in just four of the nine contests.

There are three unders wagers, with overlays ranging from 8 to 20 points, and just one over wagers with an overlay of about two goals, and where the forecast, for what it's worth three days out from the game, is for fine weather.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

Last week was a much better one for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, with both on the correct side of the TAB's totals in five of the eight games, and both on the correct side of Centrebet's totals in six.

That gives MoSSBODS a season-long 52% record against the TAB and a 53% record against Centrebet, and gives MoSHBODS a 51% record against the TAB and a 54% record against Centrebet.

In games on which it has wagered, MoSSBODS is now 13 from 23 (57%) against the TAB, and 14 from 25 (56%) against Centrebet. Those numbers are looking a lot better this week.

Last weekend was, as it was for the TAB a week before, clearly a MoSSBODS triumph, as it registered the lowest mean absolute errors (MAEs) for game margins, home team scores, away team scores, and totals.

Centrebet still leads, however, on the season-long view for home team scores, but has surrendered the lead on game totals to MoSHBODS. Centrebet also now leads on game margins, while MoSHBODS prevails on away team scores.