2018 - Round 10 : Overs/Unders Update

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The bookmakers are reasonably confident we'll see an average total score above 170 points per game this week, with five of the eight games expected by them to produce a total above that figure. The MoS twins are far less confident and see only three or four games producing or exceeding 170 points, and have an average for the round a point or two below that.

If the MoS twins are right, it'll be the seventh round in succession where the average has come in below 170 points per game. Since the lofty heights of Round 2's and Round 3's 182 points per game, the best we've managed since has been 165, registered in both Round 8 and Round 9.

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING GAME

  • All : Melbourne v Adelaide (180 to 183.5)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS : Geelong v Carlton (159)
  • TAB & Centrebet : Fremantle v Kangaroos (157.5 to 161.5)

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS : Richmond (106 to 109)
  • TAB & Centrebet : Geelong (111)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS, TAB & Centrebet : St Kilda (58.5 to 64)
  • MoSHBODS : Carlton (56)

MoSHBODS' probability estimates this week have Richmond as clear favourites for the round's high-score, and Carlton and St Kilda as the teams comfortably most-likely to be the round's low-scoring team.

The Dees v Crows game is estimated as being most-likely to be the round's high-scoring game, while the Cats v Blues, and Dockers v Roos games are estimated as being those most likely to finish as the round's low-scoring game.

WAGERS

Oblivious to last weekend's blanking on overs/unders betting, MoSSBODS has returned this week finding value in all but two of the contests.

There are four unders wagers with overlays ranging from 7 to 14 points, and two overs wagers with overlays of about 6 and 10 points. No rain is forecast for either of the games in which Investors face overs bets, so we'll not have that excuse should those wagers fail to be collects.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

Last week was a poor one for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, with the former on the correct side of the TAB's and Centrebet's totals in only two of the nine games, and the latter on the correct side against both bookmakers in only one.

That gives MoSSBODS a season-long 52% record against the TAB and Centrebet, and gives MoSHBODS a 51% record against the TAB and a 53% record against Centrebet, all of which are now not much better than chance.

In games on which it has wagered, MoSSBODS is 12 from 21 (57%) against the TAB, and 10 from 21 (48%) against Centrebet.

The TAB bookmaker swept the field last week, registering the lowest mean absolute errors (MAEs) for game margins, home team scores, away team scores, and totals.

Centrebet's still leads, however, on the season-long view for home team scores and has retaken the lead on game totals. MoSHBODS has top spot on away team scores, while the TAB retains low MAE for game margin forecasts.