2017 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders Update
/The likelihood of rain at Bellerive on Saturday seems to have led to a relatively large difference in the Totals posted by the TAB and Centrebet for the Roos v Adelaide game being played there then.
Centrebet posted early - on Wednesday afternoon - but has not subsequently moved from its 193.5 total points assessment for that game (as at the time of writing). The TAB waited until Thursday morning (having posted Totals for all but this and the Pies v Blues game also on Wednesday afternoon) and have gone with a total of 185.5. That 8-point difference is the largest we've seen in two simultaneously-available Totals markets this season.
In the other eight games, the differences between the TAB and Centrebet are far more modest - at most, 4 points, in fact, for the Dees v Hawks contest.
MoSSBODS has taken the overs on that 185.5 offer from the TAB in the Roos game, to which it has added just one more wager: an unders bet on the Dogs v Tigers game at Centrebet who are offering a 186.5 total (to the TAB's 184.5).
In the seven other games, the difference between the best total on offer and MoSSBODS' opinions are no more than 4.7 points, and mostly are ust one or two points.
Averaged across the nine games, MoSSBODS sees Home teams scoring a couple of points more and Away teams a few points less than do the TAB and Centrebet, with the result that MoSSBODS' average margin is about a goal greater from the Home teams' perspective.
Last week, MoSSBODS performed exceptionally well, recording the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) for Game Margins, Home Team scores, and Away Team scores. Centrebet, however, registered the round's lowest MAE on Totals.
Across the season:
- MoSSBODS has been best for Game Margins
- MoSHBODS has been best for Away Team scores
- Centrebet has been best for Home Team scores
- The TAB has been best for Total scores
