2017 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders Update

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This week, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS disagree by more than 3 points about the Total in any single game only for the Cats v Crows contest, which MoSHBODS assesses a 205-point game and MoSSBODS a 200-point game.

That's higher than the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers' assessments, though all four forecasters still have this game as the round's likely highest-scoring contest.

All four also have the Giants as the round's likely highest-scoring team, projected to score between 111 and 116 points against the Dons. Port Adelaide is the only other team that all four forecasters deem likely to break the 100-point mark.

Hawthorn are unanimously assessed as being the round's likely lowest-scoring team, with estimates ranging from 66 to 75 points.

WAGERS

In three games, MoSSBODS Totals estimates are sufficiently different from either the TAB's or Centrebet's to have induced a wager, two on the under, and one on the over.

Even in those three games, MoSSBODS' opinion isn't all that different from the bookmakers', the maximum absolute difference this week coming in at just over 9 points for the Suns v Eagles game, and the average absolute difference just 3 points per game.

MoSSBODS record on over/under wagering has been acceptable if not extraordinary this season. Across the 10 rounds so far it has a 26 and 22 (54%) record, including a 12 and 8 (60%) record over the latest four rounds.

The performance data shows that, across all 89 games so far, MoSSBODS has outforecast the TAB and Centrebet in terms of game margins and Away team scores, and has outforecast the TAB on Home team scores as well.

MoSHBODS, however, has done even better, outforecasting MoSSBODS on all four scoring metrics across the season, though only very narrowly so on Total scores. So good has MoSHBODS been this season in fact, that it has outforecast the TAB and Centrebet on game margins, Home team scores and Away team scores. Last week it outforecast all-comers on all four metrics.

Against the TAB, MoSHBODS has been on the right side of the Total in 47 games (53%), against Centrebet in 51 games (57%). The equivalent statistics for MoSSBODS are 47 (53%) and 48 (54%).