The two RSMP forecasters took 1st and 2nd places on the Head-to-Head Tipster and Margin Predictor Leaderboards last weekend, in the latter case displacing MoSHBODS_Marg after an 8-week unbroken stint in the top position.

This week, the RSMP Head-to-Head Predictors have gone with the bookmaker favourites in all but the Gold Coast v Collingwood game where they've both preferred the narrow underdog Pies. Consult The Ladder, who shares 1st place with them, has opted for a full card of favourites. Actually, given Consult The Ladder's superior performance this season, maybe I should phrase that as BKB aligning itself with CTL.

Overall, the level of disagreement is low this week, at 18% about 2% points below the all-season average. Only the Suns v Pies game has more than two dissenting voices siding with the underdogs. The round's highest Disagreement Index belongs to Home Sweet Home, it and MoSSBODS_Marg and C_Marg the only Tipsters with an Index above the all-Tipster average for the round.

The Margin Predictors' average mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 4.0 points per Predictor per game is up a little on last week's 3.7 and is the highest it's been since Round 12. It's still a couple of tenths below the all-season average, however.

MoSHBODS_Marg's MAD is 4.5 points per game, which is also above the all-Predictor average, but, more importantly in the context of the overall competition lead, is considerably larger than both of the RSMP's MADs. MoSHBODS_Marg, who trails the RSMP Predictors by about 14 points, will do best if:

Port Adelaide win by 52 points or more (16 point gain)
Collingwood win by 10 points or more (7 point gain)
St Kilda win by 14 points or more (6 point gain)
West Coast win by 17 points or more (5 point gain)
Adelaide win by 18 points or more (3 point gain)

From a game-by-game perspective, it's the Saints v Dons game that has the highest MAD (5.5 points per Predictor), ahead of the Tigers v Lions all-zoo affair (5.1 points per Predictor).

For the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors it's also the Saints v Dons game that has the highest MAD (7.2% points per Predictor), and the Tigers v Lions game that has the second-highest MAD (5.0% points per Predictor).

C_Prob has the round's highest MAD (8.4% points per game), ahead of MoSSBODS_Prob (4.8% points per game). MoSHBODS_Prob has probability estimates that are relatively similar to Bookie_OE and Bookie_RE and so is unlikely to move past them on the Leaderboard by round's end.

WAGERS

Investors face four head-to-head and four line bets this weekend, the octet amounting to 5.5% of the original Overall Portfolio, which is the largest single-round outlay by the two Funds since Round 11.

The upside, however, is broadly spread, with only Sydney (+1.1%) and St Kilda (+1%) able to bump up the value of the Overall Portfolio by 1% or more. Sydney (-1.2%) and St Kilda (-1.2%) also represent a large proportion of the downside, though they are joined by Port Adelaide (-1.3%) in this respect.