2017 - Team Ratings After Round 16
/Port Adelaide's victory over West Coast was just comprehensive enough, in Scoring Shot terms, relative to Sydney's win over the Gold Coast to see Port reclaim top spot on MoSSBODS.
Both Port's and the Swans' wins were also enough in terms of Scoring Shots and Points for MoSHBODS to elevate the pair into 2nd and 3rd respectively, relegating the Giants into 4th.
That left MoSSBODS touting Port Adelaide, Sydney and Adelaide as the Top 3, and MoSHBODS doing likewise but with the ordering Adelaide, Port Adelaide, then Sydney. It seems a little odd to be saying that about the teams currently in 1st, 4th and 8th spots on the competition ladder, but that's the sort of thing the 2017 season is offering up.
No team then is now ranked by the two MoS Systems more than two places differently. As well, no team rose or fell by more than two places on either System, and only one team, Richmond, fell by two places on both.
Only 10 teams are now rated as above-average by both Systems, though the two lists differ in that MoSSBODS includes West Coast and excludes Esssendon while MoSHBODS does the opposite.
On Offensive rankings, the only teams moving multiple spots on both Systems this week were Melbourne, down 2 spots on MoSSBODS and 3 spots on MoSHBODS, and the Kangaroos, down 2 spots on MoSSBODS and 5 spots on MoSHBODS. Registering only 22 scoring shots and 82 points against Fremantle's lowly-rated defence will do that to a team.
Defensively, the multi-spot movers were GWS, down 3 spots on MoSSBODS and 4 on MoSHBODS; Richmond, down 2 spots on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS; Adelaide, up 2 spots on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS; and Carlton, also up 2 spots on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.
As we've been noting for a few weeks now, Ratings are compressed on both Systems. On Offence, for MoSSBODS the gap between 3rd and 13th is only 2.3 Scoring Shots while on MoSHBODS the gap between 4th and 12th is only 7.7 points. Defensively, for MoSSBODS the gap between 2nd and 13th is only 2.6 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS the gap between 2nd and 11th is only 7.6 points. Small wonder then that anyone seems to be capable of beating anyone else on a given day.
Offensively, MoSSBODS now has the Top 3 teams as Adelaide, Port Adelaide and then St Kilda; MoSHBODS has it as Adelaide, Port Adelaide and then GWS. Defensively, both have the Top 3 as Sydney, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs, though MoSSBODS has it in that order whilst MoSHBODS prefers the Dogs ahead of the Power.
The latest round-by-round MoSSBODS Rating journey animation appears below and shows Port Adelaide nosing ahead of the Swans (who are, surely, better known for their necks - and feisty temperament.)
Next we compare the current MoSSBODS Ratings to those for every other team in history at the same point in their respective seasons.
Port Adelaide and Sydney now seem to be mingling with some of the more prominent Grand Finalists of the past, with Adelaide and St Kilda clearly on the same part of the dance floor. To continue the metaphor, GWS, Geelong, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs are lurking on the edge, waiting for a better song to come on, while Melbourne, West Coast and Essendon are the wallflowers. Most of the remaining teams are scratching around in their wallets for IDs and cover charge cash or waiting for their rides to turn up to take them to next year's Draft. The Lions, meantime, appear to be lost in the carpark ...
ChiPS AND MARS
It was another week of turbulence on ChiPS and MARS, with only five teams retaining their pre-round ranking on ChiPS, and only seven doing the same on MARS.
Still, only Richmond (down 3 on ChiPS and down 2 on MARS), Collingwood and the Gold Coast (down 2 on both), along with St Kilda (up 3 on ChiPS and up 2 on MARS) moved by more than a single spot on both Systems.
That left ChiPS with a Top 3 of Adelaide, Port Adelaide and GWS, and MARS with a Top 3 of Adelaide, Sydney and Port Adelaide.
Across the four Systems then the only teams appearing in the Top 5 for all of them are Adelaide, GWS, Port Adelaide and Sydney, with Geelong missing out due only to the recalcitrance of MoSSBODS, who ranks them 6th.
Also, looking across the four Systems, Sydney, Collingwood and the Kangaroos continue to be the teams that are ranked a couple of places or more higher by these Systems than by the competition ladder, while Fremantle (and possibly Melbourne and the Gold Coast) seems to be the team whose ladder position flatters most.
Across the four Systems we see the largest disparity in the rankings of West Coast who are 6th on MARS and 11th on MoSHBODS. No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the Systems.
