2017 - Round 13 : Six Games, Three Coins Tosses
/The first three games of the heavily-abridged Round 13 look too close to call this week, which has made for some of the highest levels of Head-to-Head Tipster disagreement we've seen this season.
Particularly interesting is that the RSMPs, who currently sit on top of the MoS Leaderboard, have different tips to MoSSBODS_Marg in two of those games. So, if St Kilda and Richmond both win, MoSSBODS_Marg will become joint competition leader with RSMP_Simple and RSMP_Weighted.
The second half of the round promises far less excitement, with Consult The Ladder's Melbourne tip the only one preventing unanimity in all three contests.
Our Margin Predictors, despite collectively straddling the zero point margin with their forecasts in the first three games of the round, span a relatively narrow range on either side of zero. The fourth game, Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions, has elicited a much broader range of opinions, topped and tailed by Bookie_9's 44 point forecast and MoSHBODS_Marg's 85 point forecast, which is by some distance its largest forecast margin of the season.
Seven Predictors have one or more extreme margin predictions this week, but C_Marg has a plurality, providing the largest or smallest forecast margin in five of the games.
With that, C_Marg has turned in the largest mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the 8th successive round. This contrarian strategy doesn't seem to be working for C_Marg this season but it appears to lack a Plan B.
Overall, however, the MADs are very low this week, the 3.5 points per game all-Predictor average the lowest for any single round this season.
The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors have also delivered relatively similar probability estimates this week, with C_Prob providing estimates with the largest MAD. It has the most extreme estimatesin four of the games.
On a game-by-game viewing, it's the Kangaroos v St Kilda, and Richmond v Sydney games that have the largest MADs, in both cases largely due to the extreme estimates of C_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob.
WAGERS
It's a very quiet and concentrated week of head-to-head and line wagering coming up, with just three bets on two teams across only two of the six games.
Richmond carries practically the entire upside and downside for Investors this week, and even then the maximum gain and loss is only about 1% of the original Overall Portfolio in their game.
In total, 1.3% of the Portfolio is at risk, and a 10ish-goal Port win coupled with a Tigers win of any magnitude will see the Portfolio increase by 1.2%.
At this stage then, no money is likely to be hurt in the making of Round 13, but the Over/Under Fund might yet change that.
MoSSBODS AND MoSHBODS
Here are the MoS twins' views on team and total scoring for the week.
Commentary to follow.
