2017 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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In a season that will surely be remembered for its unpredictability, how apt it is that MoSSBODS should finish the weekend with Sydney, very narrowly, as its number 1 team.

They sit fractionally ahead of Adelaide, who MoSHBODS still has as its top team, preferring Sydney for 4th rather than 1st. Both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have Port Adelaide in 3rd place, while GWS sits 4th on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS. 

Sydney apart, no team is currently ranked by the two MoS Systems more than two places differently.

Three teams rose multiple spots on both Systems this week - St Kilda, Geelong and Hawthorn, all up two places on both Systems - but only one team fell multiple spots. That was Melbourne, who dropped four places on both Systems.

Both Systems currently still rate 11 teams as above-average and now have the same teams on those lists.

Sydney's MoSSBODS offensive rating increased by just over 1 Scoring Shot this week, but that was enough to see it climb five places on the rankings into 5th. MoSHBODS also bumped up the Swans offensive rating a little but, for it, that was enough only to move the Swans from 10th to 9th.

Only one other team has offensive rankings under the two Systems that differ by as much as this: Geelong, who are ranked 11th on MoSSBODS (down five places this week) and 6th on MoSHBODS.

On Defence, the biggest ranking discrepancy is for Adelaide, which is ranked 10th by MoSSBODS and 7th by MoSHBODS.

As we first noted last week, Defensive Ratings are very compressed. On MoSSBODS, the gap between 4th and 10th is only 0.6 Scoring Shots, while on MoSHBODS the gap between 3rd and 10th is only 5.1 points. Offensive Ratings are becoming similarly concertinaed, the MoSSBODS gap between 2nd and 13th now just 2.2 Scoring Shots, and the MoSHBODS gap between 4th and 10th an amazingly tiny 1.6 points.

Both Systems agree that the three best offensive teams remain Adelaide, GWS and Port Adelaide. MoSHBODS has them in that order, while MoSSBODS switches Port Adelaide and GWS.

For defence, both Systems have the top 3 as, in order, Sydney, Richmond and Port Adelaide.

The latest round-by-round MoSSBODS Rating journey animation appears below and shows Sydney's drive into prominence this week.

Next we compare the current MoSSBODS Ratings to those for every other team in history at the same point in their respective seasons.

We're still yet to see a team breaking out of the pack at the top end this season, though we are getting to a point where a Grand Final berth seems very unlikely, based on history, for the eight lowest-rated teams.

As I said last week and feel a little more strongly now, it'll more likely be the competition than the ultimate winner that we'll recall about 2017 in years to come.

ChiPS AND MARS

After a few weeks of relative stability, this week ChiPS altered the ranking of 11 teams and MARS altered the ranking of 10, though ChiPS moved no team by more than two places and MARS moved none by more than a single place.

That left ChiPS with a Top 3 of Adelaide, GWS and Richmond (displacing Port Adelaide), and MARS with a new Top 3 of Adelaide, GWS and Sydney (also displacing Port Adelaide).

On the right is a table summarising the overall team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder ordering. Note that the arrow icons here denote System team ranking relative to ladder ranking.

Sydney, Collingwood and the Kangaroos continue to be the teams that are ranked much higher by the Rating Systems than their ladder positions, while Fremantle, Gold Coast and Geelong seem to be the teams whose ladder positions might flatter them a little.

Across the four Systems we see the largest disparity in the rankings of:

  • Richmond (3rd in ChiPS to 8th in MARS)
  • West Coast (6th in MARS to 11th on MoSHBODS)
  • St Kilda (6th on MoSSBODS to 11th on ChiPS)