2017 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders Update I
/This weekend's football seems very likely to be rain-affected, which should provide an interesting assessment of the extent to which MoSSBODS' ignorance of weather impairs its practical efficacy as an informer for over/under wagering.
Nowhere is the potentially-important ignorance more readily apparent than in Friday's game where the difference between MoSSBODS' and the two bookmakers' Totals is about 6 goals. That seems like a lot of rain ... (insert raining cats and dogs in the Cats and Dogs game about here).
In the five other games for which markets are currently available (there being none yet for the last two games on Sunday) MoSSBODS' opinions differ from the bookmakers' by between 1 and 4 goals, though in two of those MoSSBODS' Total is lower, so rain can't be posited as the cause.
The situation is much the same for MoSHBODS. In fact, in the Lions v Crows game, MoSHBODS finds itself even further from the bookmakers' forecasts than does MoSSBODS.
Those bookmakers have Adelaide and West Coast as the only teams scoring 100 points or more this weekend, whereas rain-blind MoSSBODS has St Kilda, GWS, Adelaide and Collingwood all performing this feat. The equally water-resistant MoSHBODS has only Adelaide and GWS on its list.
Also, the TAB and Centrebet have Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, Richmond and the Brisbane Lions all scoring fewer than 80 points, while MoSSBODS has only Sydney, Richmond and the Brisbane Lions scoring so few. MoSHBODS has Richmond alone in the sub-80 club. (Note that both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also have Carlton scoring fewer than 80 points, but we don't yet have both the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers' opinions for this game).
MoSSBODS' starkly divergent opinions mean than Investors have wagers on all 6 available contests.
Four of those wagers are overs bets and the remaining two unders bets.
In the two games that are yet to be resolved, Centrebet has posted markets but not the TAB. If those Centrebet markets don't change and the TAB Totals are similar to Centrebet's, Investors are likely to have one final overs wager on the Dockers v Blues contest.
Over the course of the season to date, MoSHBODS has been doing slightly better than MoSSBODS as a forecaster of team scores, game totals and game margins. MoSSBODS is, however, only fractionally worse than MoSHBODS as a game total forecaster, which is the key metric when you're wagering in the over/under markets.
MoSHBODS, in fact, has been a better forecaster of team scores and game margins than even the two bookmakers, and is only behind the TAB and Centrebet on predicting game totals.
