2017 - Round 2 : Convergence

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It's hard to find a dissenting voice this week amongst the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, with even Home Sweet Home tipping against the favourites in only three games.

Consult The Ladder (whose tips I have this week reported correctly) is the only other Tipster going contrarian in more than a single game, and the Tigers v Pies, and Lions v Dons matchups are the only ones with more than a single dissenting voice. In five games, the Tipsters are unanimously behind the favourite. 

As a result, the all-Tipster Disagreement Index is only 14%, exactly one-half of what it was in Round 1.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, it's C_Marg, MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg that are contributing much of the variability, C_Marg to a larger extent than it did last week, but MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg to a lesser extent.

C_Marg's high mean absolute difference (MAD) value of 11.2 points per game is elevated by its bold margin predictions for GWS, the Brisbane Lions, West Coast and Geelong in particular, where it finds itself tipping the highest winning margin of all the Predictors by between about 10 and 25 points. It's also at the extreme on its Collingwood tip, though there its prediction is not all that far from the consensus.

Other Predictors with the highest or lowest home team margins are:

  • MoSSBODS_Marg (1 high, 4 low)
  • Bookie_9 (2 high, 2 low)
  • Bookie_3 (1 high, 1 low),
  • RSMP_Simple (1 low)
  • MoSHBODS_Marg (1 high)

The round's low MAD belongs to RSMP_Weighted at just 1.7 points per game, which is a season record low.

Games generating the greatest spread of opinion are Port Adelaide v Fremantle (7 points per Predictor) and Geelong v Kangaroos (6.4 points per Predictor), while the narrowest spread comes in the Dogs v Swans game where the entire set of margin predictions span only 8 points.

C_Marg's sibling, C_Prob, has the highest MAD amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors (7.5% points per game) and has the most extreme probability estimates in five games. MoSSBODS_Prob has the next-highest MAD, followed by MoSHBODS_Prob. Bookie-RE has the round's lowest MAD of just 3.3% points per game, which is the lowest MAD recorded by any Head-to-Head Probability Predictor so far this season.

Three games have elicited relatively large MADs across the Predictors: Brisbane Lions v Essendon (8.6% points per Predictor), Port Adelaide v Fremantle (7.3%), and Geelong v Kangaroos (6.0%). The Dogs v Swans game has the round's lowest MAD of just 2.2% points per Predictor.

WAGERS

MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' relative temperance this week has meant vastly diminished wagering activity in the head-to-head and line markets compared to last week.

(NB: An earlier version of this table showed incorrect handicaps for some line bets.)

In all, there are five head-to-head wagers totalling a bit over 16% of the Fund, almost half of that in a single wager on the short-priced Port Adelaide, and six line wagers totalling about 7% of that Fund, spread much more evenly. Last weekend, the Head-to-Head Fund risked over 30% and the Line Fund almost 20%.

The Ready Reckoner reveals that, not surprisingly, the Port Adelaide v Fremantle game carries the highest level of risk, with the difference between best- and worst-case outcomes spanning 3.5% of the entire initial Overall Portfolio. 

The Hawthorn v Adelaide and Brisbane Lions v Essendon games both carry the next-highest level of risk with potential swings of 2.7% points, though the Melbourne v Carlton game isn't far behind with 2.1% points.

Three games carry no head-to-head or line bets, and the lone line bet in the Richmond v Collingwood game represents little more than a rounding error.

All together, six favourable results would add 6.4c to the Overall Portfolio price, while six unfavourable results would knock 6.1c off that price.