2017 - Round 1 : Over/Under Update

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We'll need to review our approach to the over/under market this season, I think, since, if this week is a guide, opening markets will be less generously priced.

The TAB markets opened at $1.87, Centrebet at $1.88, which means we'll need to be right more than 53.5% of the time with the TAB's lines, and more than 53.2% of the time with Centrebet's lines, if we're to turn a profit at those prices. At the $1.90 prices on offer last season, 52.6% would have been good enough to break-even.

Anyway, for this week, I've locked in two wagers at Centrebet, both overs bets, one on the Swans v Port game, and the other on the Suns v Lions game. Both are for 2% of the Fund since we're level-staking again in this market this season.

These wagers were informed by MoSSBODS' opinions, which are tabulated below alongside MoSHBODS', the TAB's, and Centrebet's.

Across the full suite of games, all four forecasters have similar average views, though MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both see higher home team scores, on average, than do the two bookmakers. They both have four teams scoring more than 100 points, three of them home teams, while the two bookmakers have only two teams achieving this mark (two home teams for the TAB and only one for Centrebet).

MoSSBODS has Fremantle as the round's low-scorers, while MoSHBODS, the TAB and Centrebet all have Port Adelaide. All four forecasters have Gold Coast on their list of high-scoring teams, but MoSSBODS adds Sydney and Adelaide as well.

(Note that, for MoSHBODS, Home Score + Away Score < Total Score because, historical data shows, the best estimate of the Away team's score is two points less than the base MoSHBODS prediction, but the best estimate of the Total Score is the sum of the unadjusted MoSHBODS Home team and Away team scores.)

Comparing MoSSBODS' forecasts directly with the TAB's and with Centrebet's, we see that MoSSBODS' Totals are within a goal of the TAB's in all but one game, and within a goal of Centrebet's in all but two games. Those are the two games on which the Over/Under Fund has wagered, with overlays of 8 and 16 points.

Had we have been using MoSHBODS rather than MoSSBODS to inform our over/under wagering, and assuming we'd have imposed the same 6-point minimum overlay on it, we'd have made one additional bet this week: an unders bet on the Roos v Eagles game against Centrebet's offer of 182.5.

It's going to be a fascinating year watching MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS match up.