2016 Round 25 : Extra Time, Maybe?

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If MoSSBODS is anywhere near the mark, we're in for a couple of very close games this weekend, closer even than is implied by the roughly 2-goal handicaps that bookmakers have set for these games.

So, with two home team favourites, MoSSBODS' expectation of close finishes, and the usual restrictions on the Head-to-Head and Line Funds that allow them to consider only home team wagers, Investors find themselves with no bets at all from those Funds this weekend. The only action is an overs bet on the Swans v Crows game where MoSSBODS thinks the 174.5 total seems a little small.

That relative lack of activity, naturally, limits the maximum upside and downside for the round. A collect on the single wager will add just 0.4c to the value of the Overall Portfolio while a loss will snip just 0.5c from it.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS 

MoSSBODS is mostly alone in its projections this weekend of an 0.3-point Dogs upset (and, taken literally, impossible) win and a 5-point Swans win. The only other Margin Predictors with anywhere near similar opinions are its statistical offspring, ENS_MoSSBODS_Linear and ENS_MoSSBODS_Greedy.

As Head-to-Head Tipsters, the three MoSSBODS amigos are alone in tipping an upset Dogs victory, while ENS_Linear_MoSSBODS is on a limb of its own making in picking the Crows over the Swans.

Turning back to the Margin Predictors we see that the range of predictions spans almost 4 goals in both contests, Bookie_3 and ENS_Linear_MoSSBODS defining that range in the Hawks v Dogs game, and C_Marg and ENS_Linear_MoSSBODS defining it in the Swans v Crows game.

RSMP_Simple and RSMP_Weighted have the same margin predictions in the Hawks v Dogs game as Bookie_LPSO, and so will be relying on a small Swans win, or a loss, to make headway into Bookie_LPSO's slender lead at the top of the ladder.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO define an 18% point range in the Hawks' match, and MoSSBODS_Prob and C_Prob define a 16% point range in the Swans' game. 

MoSSBODS DETAILS

This week, Venue Performance Effects are atypically important, especially in the Sydney v Adelaide game where they're enough to overcome the Swans' lower base rating compared to the Crows' and have MoSSBODS install the home team as narrow favourites at the SCG.

MoSSBODS projects final team scores in a narrow range this weekend, with no team expected to score more than 95 points and none fewer than 78 points.

The TAB Bookmaker, it turns out, is (implicitly) projecting a similarly narrow range of 76 to 93 points.

MoSSBODS disagrees most with the TAB Bookmaker about Hawthorn's score (78 MoSSBODS, 89 Bookmaker), and Adelaide's score (90 MoSSBODS, 82 Bookmaker). It has, though, reason to feel more than usually confident about any differences this week as it outpredicted the TAB Bookmaker in every category last weekend, recording smaller mean absolute errors (MAEs) for home team, away team, and total scores, as well as for game margins.

That leaves the season-long head-to-head comparison looking as follows:

Home Team Scores

  • MoSSBODS: 19.8 MAE; +5 Average Error (Actual - Predicted)
  • TAB: 17.9 MAE; +1 Average Error

Away Team Scores

  • MoSSBODS: 20.2 MAE; +1 Average Error
  • TAB: 20.4 MAE; -4 Average Error

Aggregate Scores

  • MoSSBODS: 26.6 MAE; +6 Average Error
  • TAB: 25.4 MAE; -3 Average Error

Game Margins

  • MoSSBODS: 30.0 MAE; +4 Average Error
  • TAB: 29.4 MAE; +6 Average Error

I feel like the next few weeks will be quite the test for MoSSBODS.