2016 Round 2 Results : Wholly Encouraging

I think that's about as good a round as it's healthy and realistic to hope for.

For Investors, four of the six Head-to-Head wagers, four of the seven Line wagers, and three of the six Overs/Unders wagers were collects, which, combined, added another 7.7c to the value of the Overall Portfolio, leaving it up now by 12.5c on the season.

By far the most lucrative result was the Dons' win over the Dees, which landed a standard-sized Head-to-Head bet at $5.50 as well as a sizeable Line Bet at $1.90, providing clear evidence that it is possible to find value bets in the market without incorporating player or bookmaker data in your modelling.

It is though now high time for some mean regression. Here's hoping it's mostly regression and only a little mean.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

I should start by pointing out that, over the course of the weekend, I discovered a small glitch in the spreadsheet that powers ChiPS Team Ratings and the ChiPS family of forecasters. It didn't have a huge effect overall and only related to the first two rounds of this season, so I've corrected C_Marg and C_Prob for Round 1 and Round 2. Normally, I'd not do this, but it was such a clear error that it seemed only proper to honour my much-missed dog, after which the System is named, by making it right.

As it turned out, the Round 2 adjustments hurt C_Marg's mean absolute error (MAE) for the round, but not enough to prevent it from sitting atop the table with a two-round MAE of 29.2 points per game.

The round's best MAE belonged to ENS_Linear_MoSS, who narrowly failed to register the round's only sub-30 MAE. Worst MAE of the round was Bookie_3's 36.0 points per game.

Across all Margin Predictors, the average MAE was 33.5 points per game.

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Amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, C_Marg registered the highest number of correct tips, six, which was enough to elevate it into a share of the lead with the still unexpectedly lofty Home Sweet Home, the pair each now having 14 and 4 records for the season. Worst for the round were four from nine performances, which were registered by a number of the Tipsters and which left Consult The Ladder on the bottom of the table with only a 50% record across the two rounds.

The all-Tipster average for the round was just 4.4 from 9.

MoSSBODS_Prob had, by far, the best Probability Score for the week. In fact, it recorded the only positive Score for the round, which leap-frogged it into top spot on the MoS H2H Probability Predictor ladder.