2015 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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ChiPS found reason to re-Rank seven teams this week, though only Port Adelaide moved by more than a single place, they slipping two spots into 11th, allowing the Cats and the Crows to grab 9th and 10th respectively.

Further up the table, and more significantly, ChiPS elevated the Dockers above the Roos into 4th, while further down the table it moved the Dees into 13th ahead of the Saints.

In terms of Rating Points (RPs), Adelaide were the week's biggest gainers and Richmond the biggest losers, their contest seeing 2.7 RPs transferred between them.

Despite dropping one place on ChiPS this week, the Roos remain one of the form teams as far as Rating changes are concerned, they having registered Rating gains in the last five consecutive weeks, a feat matched only by the Dogs.

Essendon has endured the longest run of Rating declines having surrendered RPs in each of the past four rounds. Sydney, though not having a streak as long as this, have nonetheless dropped RPs in six of the past seven weeks.

(For the full version of this table, please see the end of the blog.)

MARS was even more trigger-happy this week, tinkering with the Rankings of half the teams in the competition, most dramatically Port Adelaide, which it dropped three places into 10th, Richmond which it dropped two places into 7th, Collingwood, which it dropped two places into 11th, and the Cats, Dogs, and Crows, all of which it elevated two places into 6th, 8th and 9th respectively.

That leaves MARS most at odds with ChiPS for:

  • Richmond, Ranked 3rd by ChiPS and 7th by MARS
  • Collingwood (7th and 11th)
  • Geelong (9th and 6th)

The rank correlation between ChiPS and MARS Team Rankings now stands at +0.934, and the raw correlation between ChiPS and MARS Team Ratings at +0.952.

COLLEY, MASSEY AND ODM

While MARS saw fit to re-Rank nine teams this week, Colley opted to reshuffle 11, though it shifted only one team by more than a single place: Hawthorn, which Colley elevated from 4th into 2nd. That leaves just one team now, the Roos, who are Ranked by Colley more than a place differently from their competition ladder position. The Roos are Ranked only 8th by Colley, but sit 6th on the ladder.

Massey, like ChiPS, re-Ranked seven teams, though only two by more than a spot, elevating the Cats into 8th from 10th, and relegating Port into 11th from 8th. ODM re-Ranked fewest teams of all, altering the positions of only half a dozen, Port Adelaide the only multiple spot mover, down three places from 9th to 12th.

Looking across the Systems now, only a handful of teams elicit significant differences of opinion:

  • Collingwood, who are Ranked as high as 7th by ChiPS, Massey and ODM, but as low as 12th by Colley
  • The Kangaroos, who are Ranked as high as 5th by ChiPS and MARS, but as low as 9th by Massey
  • Richmond, who are Ranked as high as 3rd by ChiPS, but as low as 7th by MARS

Colley's Rankings remain most correlated with the competition ladder (+0.986) and ChiPS least correlated (+0.926), while the highest correlation between the Rankings of any two Systems remains Massey and ODM's, which stands now at +0.996, their only disagreement being about which of the Cats and the Roos should hold 8th and 9th positions.

ODM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE RANKINGS

There are no changes at all in ODM's Top 5 teams on Defence this week, which remain:

  1. Fremantle
  2. Hawthorn
  3. West Coast
  4. Sydney
  5. Richmond

Just outside the Top 5, the Dogs are still 6th, while the Giants have slipped ahead of the Pies and into 7th.

On Offense, there has been a little movement, though not at the very top:

  1. Hawthorn (no change)
  2. West Coast (no change)
  3. Kangaroos (up 1)
  4. Adelaide (down 1)
  5. Western Bulldogs (up 2)

Port Adelaide, previously 5th, are now 7th, while Collingwood remain 6th.

ODM and MoSSBOD and Team Rankings moved into closer alignment this week, the rank correlation between:

  • Defensive Rankings now at +0.924 (up from +0.899)
  • Offensive Rankings now at +0.917 (up from +0.849)
  • Combined Rankings now at +0.950 (up from +0.944)

The largest differences are for Richmond's Offence, Ranked 12th by ODM and 6th by MoSSBOD, Fremantle's Offence, Ranked 9th by ODM and 13th by MoSSBOD, and for St Kilda's Defence, Ranked 15th by ODM and 11th by MoSSBOD.

PREDICTIVE ACCURACY

MARS was a little less accurate than most of the other Systems this week, and now finds itself tied again with ChiPS on predictive accuracy. Relative to the other Systems it is:

  • 19 tips ahead of Colley (no change)
  • 11 tips ahead of Massey (down 1)
  • 10 tips ahead of ODM (down 1)
  • 6 tips ahead of the Offensive Component of ODM (down 2)
  • 17 tips ahead of the Defensive Component of ODM (no change) 

FULL CHiPS AND MARS TABLE

(Please click the image for a larger version).