2015 - Team Ratings After Round 16

/

The Hawks now hold a commanding 13 Rating Points (RPs) lead over the rest of the competition after having grabbed more than 7 RPs from the Swans this past weekend. West Coast, Richmond and Fremantle, the teams immediately behind the Hawks, did themselves no favours by shedding RPs despite winning, all doing fractionally less well than ChiPS thought they should.

Sydney's RP giveaway bonanza in Round 16 completes a run of four consecutive Rating declines for them, and leaves the Swans now placed 6th, three places lower than they started the week. Their decline elevated each of the Tigers, Dockers and Pies by a single spot. The only other teams to change ChiPS Rankings were Adelaide and Port Adelaide who traded 8th and 9th with the transfer of 2.8 RPs from Port to the Crows.

Only seven teams are now ChiPS Rated over 1,000, while eight are Rated between 985 and 1,000, which is down from the season high of 11 we had at the end of Round 10.

Five teams changed places on MARS this week, Carlton dropping three places to 17th, Melbourne climbing two places into 15th, St Kilda climbing a single spot into 14th, Fremantle also climbing a single spot into 3rd, and Sydney falling one place into 4th.

ChiPS and MARS now Rank three teams differently by more than one place:

  • Richmond (Ranked 3rd by ChiPS and 6th by MARS)
  • Sydney (6th and 4th)
  • Port Adelaide (9th and 7th)

Unlike ChiPS, MARS still Rates 10 teams over 1,000, and has done since the end of Round 10 when it dropped from its high of 11.

Nonetheless, the correlation between ChiPS and MARS Team Rankings remains high at +0.977, as does the correlation between ChiPS and MARS Team Ratings at +0.954.

COLLEY, MASSEY AND ODM

Colley was the most enthusiastic team re-ranker this week, changing the order of eight teams including dropping the Pies three places into 11th, lifting the Roos two places into 7th, and dropping the Swans two places into 4th. Those changes have Colley Rankings now mirroring slightly less well the competition ordering, but still correlated at +0.977.

Massey and ODM were far less judgmental, Massey re-Ranking just four teams and none by more than a single place, and ODM re-Ranking only two and neither by more than a single place either.

Only six teams now have Rankings across all five Team Rating Systems that span more than three places:

  • Collingwood, Ranked 11th by Colley and 5th by all other System
  • GWS, Ranked 8th by Colley through to 12th by ChiPS and MARS
  • The Kangaroos, Ranked 7th by ChiPS and Colley through to 11th by ODM
  • Port Adelaide, Ranked 7th by MARS through to 12th by Colley
  • Richmond, Ranked 3rd by ChiPS through to 6th by MARS, Massey and ODM
  • The Western Bulldogs, Ranked 6th by Colley through to 11th by ChiPS and MARS

Rank correlations between all pairs of Systems remain high, as the chart above would suggest, the lowest correlation of +0.880 between Colley and MARS, and the highest correlation of +0.992 between Massey and ODM.

ODM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE COMPONENTS

The ODM list of the Top 5 Defensive teams saw two changes this week:

  1. Fremantle (no change)
  2. West Coast (up 1)
  3. Sydney (down 1)
  4. Hawthorn (no change)
  5. Richmond (no change)

Just outside the Top 5, Collingwood remains 6th and the Dogs 7th.

There were also only two changes in ODM's Top 5 Offensive teams:

  1. Hawthorn (no change)
  2. West Coast (no change)
  3. Adelaide (up 2)
  4. Kangaroos (no change)
  5. Collingwood (down 2)

Geelong still lies 6th on the list, and Port Adelaide now sits 7th after climbing three places this past weekend.

MoSSBOD's Offensive and Defensive Rankings remain broadly consistent with ODM's, Richmond's Offensive capabilities still the source of greatest contention between them, though there is some lesser debate about the relative merits of Port Adelaide's Offence and St Kilda's Defence.

After combining Offensive and Defensive Ratings, the two Systems order the 18 teams almost identically, the rank correlation between them standing at +0.965.

PREDICTIVE ACCURACY

It's still ChiPS and MARS locked at the top of the league on predictive accuracy, now:

  • seven tips ahead of the Offensive Component of ODM (down 1)
  • 10 tips ahead of ODM (no change)
  • 11 tips ahead of Massey (down 1)
  • 15 tips ahead of the Defensive Component of ODM (down 3)
  • 18 tips ahead of Colley (down 1)