2014 - Team Ratings After Round 20

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ChiPS rewarded the Crows handsomely for their demolition of the Lions on Sunday, elevating them into 3rd, some four places higher than their current ladder position. The difference between the ChiPS Ranking and ladder position of three other teams also differs by four places:

  • Geelong: ranked 7th by ChiPS and sitting 3rd on the ladder
  • Gold Coast: ranked 14th by ChiPS and sitting 10th on the ladder
  • Richmond: ranked 8th by ChiPS and sitting 12th on the ladder

Adelaide climbed into 3rd place this week having clambered over five other teams to get there, and was one of only three teams to climb multiple places, the other two being the Roos, up three places into 4th, and the Tigers, up two places into 8th.

Three other teams fell multiple places, the Pies plummeting four spots into 9th, and Port Adelaide and Geelong each falling three places to assume 6th and 7th spots respectively. The ChiPS System giveth and the ChiPS System taketh away.

Only two teams have strung together a run of ChiPS Rating increases in recent weeks, the Eagles having put two such increases back-to-back and the Blues having chained together three. Similarly, only two teams have assembled a run of Rating decreases, with St Kilda now on the tail end of two successive reductions and Port Adelaide, more precipitously, at the unfriendly end of a half-dozen declines.

MARS fails to share ChiPS' lofty opinion about the Crows and has them, instead, Ranked 7th. The reverse is true for the Cats and the Eagles though, who are both Ranked three places higher by MARS than by ChiPS. In numerical terms, the largest Ratings differences between ChiPS and MARS are now for Fremantle, Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney and the Western Bulldogs, though these differences need to be interpreted cautiously since, by design, 1 ChiPS Ratings Point (RP) is not equal to 1 MARS Ratings Point. My best estimate at the moment is that, in game margin terms, the exchange rate should be about 0.75 ChiPS RP = 1 MARS RP

Introducing the other Rating Systems and comparing their Team Rankings with ChiPS' and MARS', we find only five instances where a team is Ranked more than two places higher or lower by one Rating System compared to all of the others:

  • Adelaide, ranked 3rd by ChiPS and 9th by Colley (and no lower than 5th or higher than 7th by any of the other Systems)
  • Collingwood, ranked 7th by Colley (and no higher than 9th by any of the other Systems)
  • Geelong, ranked 7th by ChiPS (and no lower than 5th by any of the other Systems)
  • Gold Coast, ranked 10th by Colley (and no higher than 12th by any of the other Systems)
  • Kangaroos, ranked 4th by ChiPS (and no higher than 6th by any of the other Systems)

There are a number of teams with quite disparate Offensive and Defensive Rankings according to ODM, the most notable of them being:

  • Adelaide: Ranked 12th defensively and 3rd offensively
  • Carlton: Ranked 14th defensively and 8th offensively
  • Essendon: Ranked 3rd defensively and 13th offensively
  • Hawthorn: Ranked 9th defensively and 1st offensively
  • Melbourne: Ranked 10th defensively and 18th offensively

When you realise that Hawthorn have scored over 60 goals and almost 350 points more than any other team in the competition it's hard to argue with ODM's Offensive Ranking of 1 for the Hawks. 

MARS fell one tip further behind ChiPS this week based on tipping the team with the higher Rating in every game. It now trails ChiPS by three tips. MARS gained one tip relative to Massey, ODM and the ODM Defensive Ratings, remained static relative to Colley, and tipped two fewer winners than the ODM Offensive Ratings. It still, however, has sizeable leads over all Systems except ChiPS.