2014 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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A round full of upsets brought about Ratings declines for six of ChiPS' eight highest-Rated teams and saw 12 teams change places on the ChiPS Rating Ladder.

Ten of those moves were by a single ladder position, however, with Adelaide, up two spots into 4th, and Fremantle, down two spots into 5th, the only teams to venture further away from their pre-round Rankings.

Adelaide's ascension into 4th comes at the end of an eight-week streak during which it has gained Rating Points (RPs) in five of them, net accumulating over 11 RPs in doing so. Its gain of 1.1 RPs this week was quite small though in comparison to the extraordinary gains enjoyed by other teams, as the Saints grabbed 9 RPs from Freo, the Lions took 5.8 from the Suns, Carlton snatched 4.8 from the Roos, and Melbourne snaffled 4.2 from recently-generous Port Adelaide. The RP movements this week have been slightly enlarged relative to previous weeks because the ChiPS Rating algorithm puts heavier weighting on the games from now to the end of the season.

Collingwood have now recorded seven successive Ratings declines and nine declines in the previous 10 rounds, while Port Adelaide have assembled a string of four consecutive Rating losses. The Dogs have the competition's longest run of Rating increases with a set of just three.

ChiPS and MARS now differ by more than a single place in their Ranking of the 18 teams only for:

  • Adelaide, ranked 4th by ChiPS and 7th by MARS
  • Fremantle, ranked 5th by ChiPS and 3rd by MARS
  • Geelong, ranked 8th by ChiPS and 5th by MARS

Compared instead to the current competition ladder, ChiPS and MARS team Rankings are three places or more different for:

  • Adelaide, 8th on the ladder but 4th on ChiPS
  • Essendon, 7th on the ladder but 10th on ChiPS
  • Geelong, 3rd on the ladder but 8th on ChiPS
  • Gold Coast, 10th on the ladder but 13th on MARS and 14th on ChiPS
  • Richmond, 12th on the ladder but 9th on ChiPS

The Colley, Massey and ODM Rating Systems mostly agree with the assessments of ChiPS and MARS - especially with MARS' - though Colley does Rank the Cats 3rd, Essendon 7th, the Gold Coast 10th, Port Adelaide 5th and Richmond 12th, reflecting its tendency to mirror the competition ladder above all else in its team Rankings.

The offensive and defensive Ratings from the ODM System suggest that 10 teams are Ranked more than three places differently on these two aspects of performance:

  • Adelaide: 11th on defence, 4th on offence
  • Carlton: 16th on defence, 8th on offence
  • Gold Coast: 13th on defence, 9th on offence
  • GWS: 18th on defence, 12th on offence
  • Hawthorn: 9th on defence, 1st on offence
  • Port Adelaide: 8th on defence, 2nd on offence
  • Collingwood: 10th on offence, 5th on defence
  • Essendon: 13th on offence, 3rd on defence
  • Melbourne: 18th on offence, 10th on defence
  • West Coast: 14th on offence, 6th on defence

Finally, turning to an assessment of the simple accuracy of the Rating Systems in selecting the winner of each contest, ChiPS and MARS each recorded the same score this week and, in so doing, pulled further away from the other Systems.

Relative to MARS, ChiPS now leads by two tips, while Massey trails by eight tips, ODM by 12, and Colley by 17. Using only the offensive component of ODM Ratings has produced 11 fewer correct predictions than MARS while using only the defensive component has produced 13 fewer correct predictions.