2014 - Round 18a: Not Much To Lose, Not Much To Win

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Round 18 is a split round with five games taking place this week and four games next week. Although TAB prices have been posted for the markets in which we're interested for all nine contests, I've only considered wagers in those games due to be played this weekend. Call me an optimist but I'm hoping for better prices next week on the four remaining games.

Fair to say, the Funds are only mildly interested in what's on offer in the five games considered. The Head-to-Head Fund has made only a single wager, and one so small that it doesn't register when expressed as a Fund percentage to one decimal place. The Margin Fund has also wagered on only a single game, expecting Port Adelaide to win by a margin that either just covers or just fails to cover the 43.5 points start they're giving Melbourne in the Line market - not that it cares.

The Line Fund, however - and, by proxy, each Investor - cares deeply about Port's covering that spread as it's one of the three teams in which the Fund has found value this weekend. Port is the only favourite on which the Fund has outlayed money, the other two teams being St Kilda receiving 59.5 points start, and GWS receiving 41.5 points start.

Combined, those Head-to-Head, Margin and Line wagers put at risk less than 8% of the initial Recommended Portfolio. No single game imperils more than 3% of the Portfolio and none presents an upside greater than a little over 3%. In two of the games, the first and last of this truncated round, there's no bet and so no risk. 

Only in the worst of all possible worlds, that in which we're unsuccessful with every wager, will Investors finish the half round facing a loss for the season as a whole. A profit for the week, however, depends on securing at least two of the three Line wagers.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home aside, the Head-to-Head Tipsters are of one voice this week in all but one of the five contests. In the Dogs v Dons game, Short Term Memory II and Shadow have joined Home Sweet Home in selecting the aptly described underdog Dogs.

In three other contests Home Sweet Home is alone is selecting the Blues, Saints and Giants, and in the remaining match up all 28 Tipsters are siding with Port Adelaide.

All of which means that there'll be no movement at all atop the MatterOfStats Leaderboard for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week.

That's unlikely to be true for the Margin Predictors though, despite the fact that they're unanimous in their choices of victors this week.

These Predictors are more likely to be buffeted relative to each other by the week's results because of the magnitude of the differences in their predicted margins. In particular, in the Saints v Freo game the predicted victory margins span a 41-point range, in the Giants v Cats game they span a 33-point range, and in the Port v Dees game they encompass a 23-point range.

Moreover, amongst the top 6 Predictors on the MatterOfStats Leaderboard, three of them are Extreme Predictor in at least one game. Bookie_3 is Extreme in the Saints v Freo and Giants v Cats match ups, Win_3 is Extreme in the Port v Dees game, and Win_7 is Extreme in the Blues v Roos contest.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, like the Margin Predictors, are unanimous about the most likely victor of every contest, but they're also highly aligned in terms of the probability assessment they've made about every team. The largest range in percentage point terms is just 13%, the difference between Bookie-LPSO's 76% assessment of the Roos' chances and WinPred's 89% assessment.

Given the narrowness of opinion, Extremism doesn't count for much this week, so it's less surprising that C_Prob is absent from the list of Extreme Predictors. ProPred dominates that list this week, appearing three times, ahead of both Bookie-RE and Bookie-LPSO that each appear twice.

The Line Fund algorithm assesses the Line market probability of all five of its preferred teams at 58% or higher this week. Highest is its assessment of the Dons (75%), narrowly higher than its assessment of the Roos (74%).

ChiPS PREDICTIONS

Since ChiPS' predictions do not depend on TAB Bookmaker prices I can safely reveal its opinions about all nine contests without the risk that they'll change as wagering markets evolve over the next week. The only aspect that might change is ChiPS' opinions about which of next week's Head-to-Head prices represent value, so I will provide an update on this aspect next week.

Meantime, again this week, ChiPS' margin predictions are heavily influenced by its Team Ratings, though it has predicted that the Eagles will defeat the Tigers despite their having an 8-point lower Rating.

What gives the Eagles the edge is a combination of their Home Ground Advantage, which is worth almost 13 points, and their Interstate Status, which is worth almost 6 points more.

The only team from this week's contests assessed as representing value in the Head-to-Head wagering market is GWS, which at $8 is worth the tiniest of wagers according to ChiPS.