2014 - Round 15 Results : That's Six

Despite the Margin Fund's best intentions, Investors enjoyed another week of profitability, extending the run of unbroken joy to six straight weeks. I'm now genuinely in fear of just how mean that mean regression is going to be.

All of the week's profit came from the Line Fund, whose four from six performance increased its own value by 8c and lifted its season-long profit to 52c. The Margin Fund, despite racking up one successful wager when the Swans landed the Jumbo on that cricket pitch in winning by 46 points, fell by 3c during the round to finish down by over 50c on the season. It went close though on the Hawks and on the Pies.

Combined, the Funds produced a 3.4c gain this week to lift the Recommended Portfolio's profit to 19.3c on the season. If you'd offered me that return after 15 rounds at the start of the season I'd have said yes, very loudly, every time.

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TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Seven favourites won this weekend, though enough of the MatterOfStats Head-to-Head Tipsters erroneously trusted their own instincts that the all-Tipster average came in at just 5.7 from 9. Best - most unusually - was Home Sweet Home, whose 8 from 9 was nonetheless insufficient to lift it from last place on the MatterOfStats Leaderboard.

Among the eight Tipsters that now sit atop that Leaderboard, six registered 7 from 9 performances for the week, which has left us with a distinct Top 3: Bookie_9 in 1st on 92 from 126 (73%) ahead of Combo_7 on 90 (71.4%) and Bookie_3 on 89 (70.6%).

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Strong performances by many of the Margin Predictors at or near the top of their own section of that Leaderboard has entrenched Win_7, Win_3 and Combo_7 as the three best Predictors, the margin from Combo_7 to the next best Predictor, Bookie_LPSO, now standing at about 45 points.

The all-Predictor average for the round was 17.7 points per game, and the best result was Win_3's 15.03 points per game. Worst was Combo_NN_2's 21.3 points per game, which cemented its second-to-last position on the Ladder.

On Line Betting, the all-Predictor average now stands at 54%, and 10 of the Predictors have profitable Line Betting performances, including C_Marg, who still sits at the foot of the Leaderboard.

Win_3 and Win_7 this week selected the correct SuperMargin bucket in three games, while the four H2H Predictors and Combo_7 managed two correct predictions each, lifting all seven Predictors into profit on SuperMargin wagering across the season.

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Focussing solely on predictions where the away team is not expected to win, nine Predictors now have profitable SuperMargin records: both ProPreds, both WinPreds, the four H2H Predictors, and Combo_NN_1.

ProPred, WinPred and the H2H Predictors aside, the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors all recorded positive probability scores for Round 15, best amongst them Bookie-LPSO who sits now 3rd on the Leaderboard behind Bookie-OE and Bookie-RE, and just ahead of C_Prob, who continues to impress me with its probability assessments, bereft as they are of any Bookmaker input.

The Line Fund algorithm also did well this week, recording its third-best probability score of the season.