2014 - Team Ratings After Round 12

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With results mostly going to script this extended weekend, there was little movement in ChiPS Team Ratings. Just two pairs of teams swapped places - Carlton climbed over the Suns into 12th, and the Lions deposed the Dees grabbing the coveted 15th place - while nobody else moved.

Sydney continue to be the team with all the Ratings momentum, snatching points again this week to extend their acquisitive run to seven games. No other team has a similar streak extending beyond three games, though the Saints have now strung together a six-game Rating Point (RP) giveaway extravaganza.

Sydney, in extending their run this week, cut into the Hawks' lead at the top of the ChiPS ladder and now trail by less than 8 RPs. A little further down the ladder, the Roos in 6th, have now opened up a 5 RP gap to the Cats in 7th, the Cats having fallen five places in the past five rounds. Still, there's quite a gap between the Cats and the Crows in 8th, so the Cats look to be safe from further declines for at least a little while.

There's nothing much new to say about the comparison between ChiPS and MARS Ratings and Rankings this week, with Fremantle and Richmond the only teams still Ranked more than 1 place differently by the two Systems, and with the all-team correlation between these two Systems now standing at +0.989.

There's also not a lot new to say about the team Rankings of the various Systems when we add ODM, Colley and Massey either. One thing I don't recall commenting on explicitly before though is the relative spread of rankings for the various teams, which are currently greatest for: 

  • Brisbane Lions (Colley high; ODM low)
  • Geelong (Colley high; ChiPS, Massey and ODM low)
  • Gold Coast (Colley high; ChiPS low)
  • Richmond (ChiPS high; Colley low)

Overall, Colley is the notably highest or lowest ranker of 8 teams, whilst ChiPS has that designation for 3 teams. In general though, the five Systems continue to Rank all 18 teams fairly similarly.

Turning next to the component Rankings of ODM, we find that they've changed most over the past few weeks as follows:

  • Improved Defensive Ranking: the Lions, the Pies and the Dons
  • Improved Offensive Ranking: the Roos
  • Lowered Defensive Ranking: the Cats and the Saints

Finally, reviewing the predictive accuracy of the various Systems and components, we find that ChiPS remains resolutely 3 games clear of MARS, while Massey trails by 7, Colley by 10, and ODM by 11. As well, predictions based solely on ODM's Defensive Rankings have been right in 8 games fewer than predictions based solely and simply on MARS, while those based solely on ODM's Offensive Rankings sit 11 games adrift.