2013 : Round 15 - Wagers & Tips

We MAFL Investors are, by necessity, a fickle bunch.

No more so than this week than when we'll be cheering for the Dons to knock off those Port Adelaide pretenders (preferably by 30 to 39 points) who've so faithfully returned Investor affection over the past two weeks. And lined their pockets.

The Dons, however, don't represent the week's greatest potential profit for Investors. That label belongs instead to the Dees who, by springing an upset victory against the Swans - and, let's be honest, "upset" doesn't really do that eventuality justice - would add over 5c to the Recommended Portfolio.

Other particularly favourable outcomes would be Fremantle victories by 47 to 49 points (worth 3.9c), an Adelaide v West Coast draw (also worth 3.9c), or Dons wins by 30 to 39 points (worth 3.2c).

Disaster comes this week in the form of Fremantle wins by 39 points or fewer, Essendon wins by 19 points or fewer, Carlton wins by 2 points or fewer, GWS losses by 30 points or more, and Roos losses by 16 points or more, each of which would knock at least 3c off the Recommended Portfolio.

In short then, another week of possibility and pitfall, potential profit and pending penury.

TIPSTERS AND PREDICTORS

This week there are three, maybe four, games about which the Head-to-Head Tipsters show some dissention, most of all in the Dons v Port game where eight are siding with the home team favourites in the shape of the Dons, and five are swayed by the recent form of Port Adelaide, and in the Lions v Suns game, where only five are tipping a home team favourite win by the Lions, and eight are on an upset Suns victory.

The other games eliciting significant levels of disagreement are Friday's Blues v Pies clash, which sees four Tipsters behind the home team favourite Blues, and the Roos v Tigers clash, which sees three Tipsters opting for the home team underdog Roos. 

The Margin Predictors are also split, to varying degrees, in the Blues v Pies, Lions v Suns, Cats v Hawks, and Crows v Eagles games. All four of those games are predicted to be close affairs by all of the Margin Predictors, with none brave enough to prophesy a victory by more than 3 goals by either team.

In the other games Margin Predictor opinion about the likely victors is unanimous, most emphatically in the case of Fremantle, who are tipped to beat the Saints by margins ranging from 5 to 10 goals.

Head-to-Head Probability Predictors are split only in relation to the Carlton v Collingwood and Adelaide v West Coast games, where at least one Predictor has opted to assume a contrarian opinion about the likely winner.

Most contrarian of all this week is WinPred, whose probabilities differ from the all-Predictor average by, on average, almost 6 percentage points, while the round's conformist is the risk-equalising variant of the TAB Bookmaker-derived Probability Predictor, which differs from the all-Predictor average by, on average, just 2.3 percentage points.

The Line Fund algorithm rates Fremantle as far-and-away the best prospects on line betting, with a 72% chance of covering the 46.5 points they've been forced to offer. Other strong prospects are Sydney, rated 63% chances to cover the 60.5 points they're offering, and the Lions, rated 57% chances to cover the 13.5 points start they're offering.