2013 : Round 10 - Results

It's nice to be able to report to Investors a small profit for the latest round though it'd be even nicer if I knew they'd been aware of all of the wagers that produced this most welcome of outcomes. But that would require that I'd not copied and pasted our SuperMargin wager on the Cats to make it appear to be a curious SuperMargin wager on the Dogs. Cats, Dogs - always easy to confuse in my experience.

In any case, Investors finished the extended round with a 2 from 3 Line betting record and a 1 from 12 SuperMargin betting record, which combined to yield a net gain of a touch over half a cent. That leaves the Recommended Portfolio down now by just 12.2c.

TIPSTERS AND PREDICTORS

Combo_NN2's faith in the Crows' toppling Fremantle proved misplaced this week, which allowed the Head-to-Head Tipsters immediately behind it to peg back a tip. That leaves Combo_NN2 now just two tips clear of the pack on 68.5 from 90. No single Tipster managed better than this 7 from 9 this week, while Home Sweet Home's 5 from 9 represented the round's worst result and served to cement its place afoot the MAFL Leaderboard.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, Bookie 3's mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) of 26.42 points per game proved best, but was good enough only to move it into 3rd position behind the two RSMP Predictors, which remain resolutely at the top of the Leaderboard. The two RSMP Predictors also remain as the only Predictors with line betting records of 60% or better.

(One interesting aspect of Bookie_3's performance is the fact that it's only predicted a margin within 6 points of the actual margin in 8% of games, the equal-worst performance of any Margin Predictor. That said, it's been "nearest the pin" in 12 games - and furthest from it in 10 more.)

A number of Margin Predictors predicted the correct SuperMargin bucket in two games this weekend, which has left 8 Predictors with a non-negative ROI from SuperMargin wagering across the season, all of them having selected the correct bucket in at least 11 games.

There's still no change amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, with the Risk-Equalising variant of Bookmaker prices continuing to prove the best in assessing home team victory probabilities. Across the weekend, all Head-to-Head Probability Predictors except the H2H variants recorded positive probability scores.

So too did the Line Fund algorithm, if barely, which meant that the average per game probability score for this algorithm improved slightly.